Brokerage : iM Securities (Analyst: Myungsub Song)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 480,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : FY26 operating profit forecast revised up to KRW 407.1T driven by steep DRAM and NAND ASP gains and the base effect following the absorption of 1H bonus provisions
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 480,000 (Current price KRW 296,000 as of 2026.07.07, upside potential 62.2%)
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 333.6T, Operating Profit KRW 43.6T, Net Profit KRW 44.3T
- 2026E: Revenue KRW 765.7T, Operating Profit KRW 407.1T, Net Profit KRW 292.7T
- 2027E: Revenue KRW 848.9T, Operating Profit KRW 447.4T, Net Profit KRW 328.2T
- 2028E: Revenue KRW 764.0T, Operating Profit KRW 331.6T, Net Profit KRW 254.7T
- Valuation Multiples & Financial Indicators:
- PER: 2025A 18.3x → 2026E 6.8x → 2027E 6.1x → 2028E 7.8x
- PBR: 2025A 1.9x → 2026E 2.8x → 2027E 1.9x → 2028E 1.6x
- ROE: 2025A 10.8% → 2026E 51.5% → 2027E 37.6% → 2028E 22.0%
- EV/EBITDA: 2025A 7.5x → 2026E 3.2x → 2027E 2.4x → 2028E 2.3x
- Dividend Yield: 2025A 1.4% → 2026E 0.6% → 2027E 0.6% → 2028E 0.6%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Preliminary Results & Segment Breakdown:
- Consolidated revenue reached KRW 171.0T and operating profit reached KRW 89.4T, substantially exceeding market consensus.
- Segment Operating Profit Estimates: DS KRW 89.2T (Memory KRW 91.4T), SDC +KRW 0.7T, VD/DA (including Harman) +KRW 0.4T, MX/NW -KRW 0.8T.
- Normalized Memory Profitability: Reflecting ~KRW 17T in combined 1Q-2Q incentive provisions, normalized Memory operating profit is estimated at approximately KRW 109T.
- 2Q26 Shipments and Pricing: Bit growth outperformed guidance (DRAM +12% QoQ, NAND +2% QoQ), while ASP surged over 50% QoQ for DRAM and around 70% QoQ for NAND.
- Set (DX) Division Performance:
- MX/NW turned into an operating deficit (-KRW 0.8T) due to memory cost inflation and slowing PC/smartphone shipments, with losses expected to continue into 2H26.
- 3Q26 and Full-Year FY26 Forecast Upward Revisions:
- 3Q26 DRAM and NAND ASPs are projected to rise further by approximately 20% QoQ each.
- 3Q26 Memory operating profit is projected to increase 42% QoQ to KRW 129.9T (reflecting only single-quarter provisions), bringing consolidated operating profit to KRW 126.7T.
- Consolidated FY26 operating profit forecast is upgraded to KRW 407.1T on the back of stronger 2H26 memory price realization.
- Share Price Assessment:
- Short-term price weakness post-earnings release was attributed to priced-in expectations and market concerns over NVL144 schedule adjustments, with a rebound anticipated as FY26 consensus earnings and valuation multiples adjust upward.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company whose corporate earnings expansion is decisively anchored by its memory division, where aggressive ASP appreciation and the normalization of one-off employee compensation provisions outweigh margin pressures in the set (DX) business. This perspective emphasizes the ongoing upward trajectory of full-year earnings forecasts driven by strong memory pricing power over temporary market concerns regarding set losses and post-earnings price corrections.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include whether 3Q26 DRAM and NAND ASPs achieve the projected ~20% QoQ increase, whether Memory operating profit reaches the estimated KRW 129.9T following the absorption of 1H provisions, and the extent of operating losses within the set division. These developments can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official periodic reports, and company IR materials.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
