Fact Source: Hanwha Investment & Securities / Report Date: July 1, 2026
Investment Opinion & Target Price: BUY (Maintain) / 300,000 KRW (Maintain)
Key Momentum: Sustained solid top-line revenue growth centered on advertising and commerce, alongside the full-scale rollout of the generative AI monetization roadmap in H2
📊 1. [Valuation Indicators & Investment Metrics Analysis]
- Investment Opinion & Target Price Trend: Both the ‘BUY’ rating and the target price of KRW 300,000 have been maintained at their previous levels. No significant changes have been made to the earnings estimates for H2, adhering to the existing outlook that the short-term stock price will continue to move within a box-pattern range.
- Key Financial Metrics & Valuation Forecasts:
- Revenue: 2024: KRW 10.74T ➡️ 2025: KRW 12.04T ➡️ 2026E: KRW 13.81T ➡️ 2027E: KRW 15.28T
- Operating Profit: 2024: KRW 1.98T ➡️ 2025: KRW 2.21T ➡️ 2026E: KRW 2.29T ➡️ 2027E: KRW 2.60T
- P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): 2024: 16.4x ➡️ 2025: 15.0x ➡️ 2026E: 16.0x ➡️ 2027E: 12.6x
- P/B (Price-to-Book Ratio): 2024: 1.2x ➡️ 2025: 1.1x ➡️ 2026E: 1.1x ➡️ 2027E: 1.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 2024: 10.7x ➡️ 2025: 9.3x ➡️ 2026E: 8.3x ➡️ 2027E: 6.9x
- ROE (Return on Equity): 2024: 7.9% ➡️ 2025: 7.4% ➡️ 2026E: 6.5% ➡️ 2027E: 7.7%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities (TAM) & Detailed Earnings Estimates]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview & Estimated Data:
- Consolidated Revenue: Estimated at KRW 3.39T.
- Operating Profit: Estimated at KRW 544.7B, missing the market consensus by approximately 6%.
- Expected Operating Margin: 16.1%, with the overall margin expected to drop slightly due to continuous investment costs.
- Key Performance and Cost Factors by Segment:
- Advertising Revenue: Expected to grow +9.6% Year-on-Year (YoY), driven by the expansion of AI-based AdBoost and favorable performance in commerce ads.
- Commerce & Service Revenue: Estimated to increase +35.5% YoY, supported by steady growth in Smart Store transaction volume, growth in Kurly GMV, and accelerated user inflows into membership via World Cup promotional effects.
- Cost-Driving Factors: Partner fees are estimated to rise +8% Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) due to the recognition of World Cup broadcasting rights costs, while infrastructure and marketing expenses are projected to grow +5% and +3.6% QoQ, respectively.
- Infrastructure Investment & Generative AI Strategy:
- The competitiveness of integrated service assets leading from search to purchase and reservation remains highly robust. However, a slight slowdown in growth rate is inevitable as the impact of previous commission hikes fades, delivery competitiveness is reinforced in H2, and membership benefits expand.
- The company will present a concrete monetization strategy for generative AI starting in Q3. Yet, as accompanying capital and operational investments are unavoidable, a time lag of at least two quarters is expected before tangible AI results—such as evaluating potential cannibalization of existing ads versus net conversion rates—can be clearly verified.
📝 Editor’s Comment (by K-STOCK Editor)
Despite NAVER’s robust top-line revenue growth in 2Q26, the arrival of the “investment bill” for future growth drivers has officially triggered a phase of short-term margin compression. With operating profit missing market expectations by 6% due to concurrent increases in World Cup broadcasting rights, infrastructure, and marketing costs, short-term pressure on the stock price appears highly probable. The market’s high expectations for the generative AI sector, which plans to unlock monetization pathways in Q3, must be evaluated with sobriety. The global AI landscape is rapidly shifting toward actual monetization viability rather than technological novelty. Discerning whether these new AI offerings will purely cannibalize existing ad spaces or generate genuine net growth will require at least two quarters of market verification. Until measurable outcomes from new business segments like AIDC, cloud services, and digital assets are sequential and proven, a conservative approach focusing on box-range trading remains advisable.
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