Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yuak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 330,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Target price raised based on an earnings surge driven by steep commodity memory price hikes pointing toward 2Q26 operating profit of KRW 100T, non-memory turnaround, and market share gains in HBM4 and eSSD.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; Target Price raised by +26.9% to KRW 330,000 from KRW 260,000 (based on May 8, 2026 share price of KRW 268,500)
- Valuation Drivers: Upward revisions in 2026–2028 earnings forecasts; current share price implies a 2026F PER of 6.5x and PBR of 2.6x
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (2024 ~ 2027F):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 4,950, PER 10.7x, PBR 0.9x, EV/EBITDA 3.9x, ROE 9.0%, Div. Yield 4.5% (26E basis)
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T, EPS KRW 6,564, PER 18.3x, PBR 1.9x, EV/EBITDA 7.9x, ROE 10.8%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 702.84T, OP KRW 361.75T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 283.44T, EPS KRW 42,081 (+541.1% YoY), PER 6.5x, PBR 2.6x, EV/EBITDA 2.6x, ROE 52.6%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 754.14T, OP KRW 341.67T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 262.74T, EPS KRW 39,008 (-7.3% YoY), PER 6.9x, PBR 2.0x, EV/EBITDA 2.2x, ROE 33.7%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Outlook & Memory Price Surges:
- 2Q26 revenue and operating profit projected at KRW 181T (+36% QoQ) and KRW 100T (+75% QoQ), significantly exceeding consensus (KRW 164T / KRW 84T)
- Commodity DRAM and NAND price increases expected at +55% QoQ and +72% QoQ, beating market expectations: Mobile DRAM +76% QoQ, NAND module (eMMC, UFS, SSD) prices jumping 70–80% QoQ
- 2Q26 Divisional OP Estimates: DS KRW 98.6T (+84% QoQ), SDC KRW 0.4T (+7% QoQ), DX(MX/NW) KRW 0.1T (-96% QoQ), DX(VD/DA) KRW 0.2T (+11% QoQ)
- Foundry and S.LSI units expected to turn a slight operating profit, supported by HBM4 base die and Exynos 2600 production
- 3Q26 Outlook & Moderation of Price Growth:
- 3Q26 revenue and operating profit forecast at KRW 197T (+8% QoQ) and KRW 108T (+8% QoQ), exceeding consensus (KRW 185T / KRW 98T)
- Commodity memory price increases are expected to moderate to single-digit QoQ growth in 3Q26 as PC and smartphone demand slows, easing OEM inventory shortages
- 3Q26 Divisional OP Estimates: DS KRW 106.4T (+8% QoQ), SDC KRW 1.2T (+168% QoQ), DX(MX/NW) KRW 0.4T (+211% QoQ), DX(VD/DA) KRW 0.1T (-62% QoQ)
- Foundry and S.LSI expected to maintain growth momentum led by 4nm and 2nm utilization gains
- Key Medium-Term Catalysts: Market share expansion in HBM4 and eSSD, alongside profitability turnaround in the Foundry business
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an integrated semiconductor powerhouse entering an earnings super-acceleration phase driven by commodity memory price spikes alongside an operational turnaround in non-memory units (Foundry/S.LSI). This perspective places primary emphasis on the near-term milestone of reaching KRW 100T in quarterly operating profit for 2Q26, combined with structural improvements via HBM4/eSSD market share gains and advanced node (4nm/2nm) fab utilization.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis holds true over time, key verification checkpoints include the realization of KRW 100T in 2Q26 operating profit, the sustainability of the non-memory turnaround into 2H26, the pace of memory price moderation in 3Q26 amid end-set demand shifts, and progress in commercial shipments of HBM4 base dies and Exynos 2600. These metrics can be tracked through subsequent quarterly earnings reports, official IR disclosures, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
