Brokerage : Daishin Securities (Analyst: Hyungkeun Ryu)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 560,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Earnings and corporate value expansion driven by accelerating memory price hikes amid limited supply, 2027 HBM-led ASP growth, and enhanced shareholder returns supported by substantial FCF generation
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 6-month Target Price maintained at KRW 560,000 (Current price KRW 340,500 as of 2026.06.24)
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.9T, Operating Profit KRW 32.7T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 33.6T
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 333.6T, Operating Profit KRW 43.6T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 44.3T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 717.7T, Operating Profit KRW 365.3T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 282.9T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 932.8T, Operating Profit KRW 531.8T (revised up from KRW 503T to KRW 532T level), Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 396.9T
- Valuation Multiples & Financial Indicators:
- EPS: 2025A KRW 6,564 → 2026F KRW 42,465 → 2027F KRW 59,580
- PER: 2025A 18.3x → 2026F 4.4x → 2027F 3.2x
- PBR: 2025A 5.4x → 2026F 3.2x (BPS KRW 105,550) → 2027F 2.2x (BPS KRW 154,125)
- ROE: 2025A 10.8% → 2026F 50.2% → 2027F 45.9%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Outlook (Preview):
- Consolidated revenue projected at KRW 171.9T and operating profit at KRW 82.2T; expected to miss market consensus (KRW 86.8T) due to DS incentive bonus provisions (estimated in the high KRW 10T range), though viewed as a one-off event.
- Segment Operating Profit Estimates: DS KRW 80.8T (Memory KRW 83.1T, DRAM KRW 61.0T, NAND KRW 22.1T, Non-Memory -KRW 2.3T), DX KRW 0.6T (MX/Network KRW 0.5T, CE/VD KRW 0.1T), SDC KRW 0.4T, Harman KRW 0.4T.
- Memory & 2027 Market Outlook:
- Pricing Momentum: Widening supply-demand imbalance from rising customer CapEx and constrained production growth is expected to steepen the memory price hike trajectory.
- HBM-Led Growth: Aggressive pricing normalization is anticipated to recreate the HBM-driven DRAM ASP surge seen during 2H23–1H25 (2027 HBM ASP projected to rise +65% YoY), lifting 2027 operating profit forecasts to KRW 532T.
- Shareholder Returns & Integrated Semiconductor Synergy:
- Shareholder Return & M&A: With full-year FCF projected to exceed KRW 300T (before M&A deductions), expectations are rising for enhanced shareholder return policies (special dividends, share buyback/cancellation) and treasury share repurchases for employee bonuses, alongside aggressive M&A capacity for DX.
- Non-Memory / Foundry: Despite near-term bonus-related losses, expanding into HBM Base Die, Auto, and ASIC alongside advanced node yield stabilization is expected to create synergy as an integrated device manufacturer.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company with resilient earnings capacity and expanding shareholder return potential supported by severe memory supply shortages and substantial FCF generation, which outweighs temporary bonus provisions and DX margin compression. This perspective places primary importance on the steepening trajectory of memory prices, the anticipated resurgence of HBM-driven ASP expansion into 2027, large-scale FCF-based capital returns, and foundry-driven integrated device synergies, rather than near-term cost headwinds or cycle peak debates.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include the actual trajectory of memory price increases and quarterly operating profit recovery following the 2Q bonus provision absorption, the realization of 2027 HBM ASP growth projections, the formal announcement and execution of FCF-backed shareholder return policies (including share buybacks/cancellations), and advanced node customer order wins in the foundry division. These developments can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official regulatory filings, periodic financial reports, and company IR materials.
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