Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yuak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 390,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Earnings acceleration and profitability improvement driven by commodity memory price hikes, rapid surge in HBM4 shipments, and narrowing operating losses in the Foundry division
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Trading & Valuation Metrics
- Current Price (as of 2026-07-30): KRW 207,000
- Target Price: KRW 390,000 (Maintain)
- Investment Rating: BUY (Maintain)
- Market Capitalization: KRW 1,210.18 Trillion (KRW 12,101,797 Billion)
- 2026F PER / PBR / EV/EBITDA: 4.5x / 2.1x / 2.4x
- 2027F PER / PBR / EV/EBITDA: 4.0x / 1.4x / 1.6x
- 2026F ROE / 2027F ROE: 56.0% / 41.0%
- 2026F Dividend Yield: 4.5%
- Annual Financial Outlook (Consolidated IFRS)
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 727.29T, Operating Profit KRW 386.04T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 308.39T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 824.24T, Operating Profit KRW 436.23T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 346.30T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review
- Segment results were largely in line with expectations. While commodity DRAM price increases were slightly soft, shipments beat expectations; NAND shipments and pricing met estimates.
- Foundry/S.LSI, SDC, and VD segments matched forecasts, but MX posted a larger-than-expected operating loss despite higher smartphone unit sales.
- A key highlight was HBM4 sales volume surging nearly 3x QoQ.
- 3Q26 Earnings Forecast Revision
- 3Q26 consolidated revenue is projected at KRW 213 Trillion (+24% QoQ) and operating profit at KRW 122 Trillion (+37% QoQ), beating previous estimates (Revenue KRW 202T, OP KRW 112T) and market consensus (Revenue KRW 210T, OP KRW 115T).
- Commodity DRAM and NAND ASP are both expected to increase by approximately +20% QoQ, above market expectations, alongside full-scale earnings growth in HBM.
- In the Foundry/S.LSI division, operating losses are expected to narrow significantly with improved profitability, supported by HBM4 base die mass production and Exynos volume ramp-up.
- 3Q26 segment operating profit estimates: DS KRW 122.3T (+37% QoQ), SDC KRW 0.9T (+29% QoQ), MX/NW KRW -1.5T (loss continued), VD/DA KRW 0.01T (turnaround).
- Key Catalysts
- Main drivers include robust 3Q26 earnings, HBM4 ASP increases and rapid shipment growth, and expanding new order wins in Foundry.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as re-entering a structural earnings growth phase led by semiconductor profitability, where robust commodity memory pricing power, surging HBM4 shipments, and narrowing non-memory losses outweigh lingering cost pressures in the MX division. This perspective emphasizes that prior valuation de-rating and market concerns are largely priced in relative to the long-term earnings expansion expected into 2027–2028.
To assess whether this investment thesis holds true over time, key verification factors include whether 3Q26 commodity DRAM and NAND ASP actually achieve the projected ~20% QoQ increase, the continuity of HBM4 volume growth, and the extent of operating loss reduction in the Foundry/S.LSI business via HBM4 base die and Exynos volume ramp. These metrics can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and regular regulatory filings (DART).
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