Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 370,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Earnings expansion driven by HBM-led ASP gains and sustained hyperscaler Capex, supported by foundry synergy and substantial FCF-backed shareholder return capacity
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock & Valuation Indicators
- Current Price (as of 2026-08-10): KRW 230,000
- Target Price: KRW 370,000 (Upside: 60.9%)
- Rating: BUY (Maintained)
- 12M Forward P/E: 3.9x
- 12M Forward P/B: 1.6x
- Market Capitalization: KRW 1,344.64 Trillion
- Key Financial Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated)
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 43.60 Trillion (OPM 13.1%), Net Profit KRW 44.26 Trillion, EPS KRW 6,564
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 737.75 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 392.52 Trillion (OPM 53.2%), Net Profit KRW 309.97 Trillion, EPS KRW 46,469
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 979.35 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 558.93 Trillion (OPM 57.1%), Net Profit KRW 447.62 Trillion, EPS KRW 67,326
- 2028(F): Revenue KRW 985.74 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 490.16 Trillion (OPM 49.7%), Net Profit KRW 412.01 Trillion, EPS KRW 61,970
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Market Dynamics & Earnings Projections
- Hyperscaler Capex growth projected to continue for 3+ years, backed by a combined top-5 backlog of USD 2.4 Trillion (4x annual revenue)
- Quarterly Operating Profit forecasts: KRW 120 Trillion in Q3 2026, KRW 393 Trillion in Q4 2026, and KRW 559 Trillion for FY2027
- DRAM ASP projections: QoQ +15% in Q3 2026, +5% in Q4 2026, and +22% in 2027 (driven by HBM pricing)
- NAND ASP projections: QoQ +15% in Q3 2026, +5% in Q4 2026, and +13% in 2027
- Foundry Strategy & Conditional Share Gain Outlook
- Competitive edge highlighted in full-stack turnkey solutions integrating memory and foundry businesses
- Potential for leading-edge market share gains if mass production capabilities and commercial references are secured through 2nm shipments to Tesla starting in 2027
- Expansion roadmap includes Taylor Fab Phase 1 followed by Phase 2 operation targeted by 2030
- Cash Flow & Shareholder Return Capacity
- Expected 2026 shareholder return yield estimated at 6.8–9.5% for common shares and 9.1–12.7% for preferred shares (based on 50% FCF policy)
- Conservatively estimated 3-year cumulative FCF exceeding KRW 600 Trillion starting from 2027, substantially increasing potential return pool
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates Samsung Electronics as a business whose valuation multiples have contracted toward pre-AI-cycle levels despite uncompromised fundamental demand, supported by HBM-driven ASP increases and memory-foundry integration synergies that maintain strong earnings power and cash generation. Rather than focusing on short-term market corrections, this perspective places greater weight on durable hyperscaler Capex trends, potential leading-edge foundry share gains contingent on establishing 2nm mass production references, and the expansion of shareholder return programs funded by massive multi-year FCF accumulation.
To verify whether this investment thesis holds going forward, key tracking points include whether quarterly DRAM and NAND ASP gains translate into projected operating profit growth through the second half of 2026, whether the company successfully secures mass production capabilities and references through 2027 Tesla 2nm shipments alongside Taylor Fab progress, and whether long-term FCF accumulation leads to actualized shareholder return increases. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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