Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Eui-young Ko, RA: Woo-sung Son
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 180,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Structural mix enhancement with industrial and automotive revenue projected to reach 36%, alongside expanding market presence in AI server MLCCs and ASIC FC-BGA substrates.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintain) / KRW 180,000 (Maintained, based on historical 10-year average 12M forward P/B of 1.5x)
- Current Share Price (As of Jan 24, 2025): KRW 128,100 (Upside potential: 40.5%)
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue: 2023A KRW 8.91T → 2024E KRW 10.29T → 2025E KRW 10.95T → 2026E KRW 11.60T
- Operating Profit: 2023A KRW 639.0B → 2024E KRW 735.0B → 2025E KRW 884.0B (Adjusted by -2%) → 2026E KRW 1.05T (Adjusted by -2%)
- Net Profit: 2023A KRW 423.0B → 2024E KRW 601.0B → 2025E KRW 681.0B → 2026E KRW 823.0B
- EPS: 2023A KRW 5,450 → 2024E KRW 7,741 → 2025E KRW 8,781 → 2026E KRW 10,609
- PER: 2023A 28.1x → 2024E 16.5x → 2025E 14.6x → 2026E 12.1x
- PBR: 2023A 1.5x → 2024E 1.2x → 2025E 1.1x → 2026E 1.0x
- ROE: 2023A 5.5% → 2024E 7.4% → 2025E 7.9% → 2026E 8.9%
- Dividend Yield: 2023A 0.8% → 2024E 1.4% → 2025E 1.6% → 2026E 1.7%
- 1Q25 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 2.60T (+1% YoY) and Operating Profit of KRW 182.1B (+3% YoY, OPM 7.0%), in line with iM Securities’ previous estimates.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Portfolio Restructuring: Combined revenue share from industrial (servers, etc.) and automotive applications expanded from 12% 5 years ago to 28% in 2024 (+7%p YoY), and is projected to reach 36% in 2025 (+8%p YoY).
- Component Division: Projected 2025 revenue growth of +8% YoY. AI server MLCC share within total MLCC sales is forecast to expand to 11–12% in 2025 (vs. 2–3% in 2023 and 6–7% in 2024), maintaining an oligopolistic market share of ~40% in AI server MLCCs.
- Package Solution Division: Projected 2025 revenue growth of +10% YoY, supported by high-end FC-BGA expansion (+20% YoY) driven by Big Tech AI ASIC orders. Server applications within FC-BGA revenue are expected to rise to 35% in 2025 (up from 29% in 2024).
- Optics Division: Projected 2025 revenue growth of +2% YoY, with automotive camera exposure reaching 20% (+3%p YoY) and future optionality in humanoid robot vision systems.
- Macro & Supply Chain Dynamics: Healthy MLCC channel inventories enable rapid utilization recovery upon market rebound, while China’s smartphone subsidies offer incremental demand upside.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not simply as a cyclical supplier exposed to slow legacy IT hardware demand, but as an adaptable component leader actively shifting its business mix toward high-barrier industrial (server) and automotive sectors. The overarching investment thesis emphasizes structural quality improvements—highlighted by an estimated ~40% market share in AI server MLCCs and expanding exposure to Big Tech AI ASIC substrates—rather than the timing of a general consumer device recovery.
To evaluate whether this thesis progresses as projected, key verification points include whether the combined industrial and automotive revenue share reaches 36% in 2025, whether AI server MLCCs achieve the projected 11–12% share of division sales while preserving market leadership, and the actual delivery ramp-up of AI ASIC FC-BGA substrates to global cloud customers. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regular business reports.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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