Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Eui-young Ko (IT RA: Jeongha Park)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,300,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Unprecedented multi-year earnings upgrades driven by commodity-led MLCC price hikes, Si-Cap LTA visibility in advanced packaging, and 100% FC-BGA capacity utilization in 2H26
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 2,300,000 (Raised by +28% from KRW 1,800,000) (Closing price KRW 1,664,000 as of June 8, 2026; upside potential 38.2%)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a +30% premium to 2027 global peer average P/E multiples (Component 72x vs. peer 55x; Package 44x vs. peer 34x), reflecting SEMCO’s AI hardware leadership across both MLCC and FC-BGA, supported by an attractive 2027(E) PEG of 0.4x (vs. global MLCC peer average of 2.1x)
- Operating Profit Forecast Upgrades:
- Upwardly adjusted 2027 and 2028 operating profit forecasts by +5% and +6% to KRW 3.3 Trillion and KRW 4.3 Trillion, respectively
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue (KRW): 2025 KRW 11.314 Trillion → 2026(E) KRW 13.310 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 16.757 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 18.985 Trillion
- Operating Profit (KRW): 2025 KRW 913.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.568 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 3.296 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 4.346 Trillion
- Net Profit (KRW): 2025 KRW 706.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.248 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 2.703 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 3.579 Trillion
- EPS (KRW): 2025 KRW 9,099 → 2026(E) KRW 16,080 → 2027(E) KRW 34,834 → 2028(E) KRW 46,124
- Valuation Multiples (PER / PBR / ROE):
- 2025: PER 28.0x, PBR 2.1x, ROE 7.7%
- 2026(E): PER 103.5x, PBR 12.0x, ROE 12.3%
- 2027(E): PER 47.8x, PBR 9.9x, ROE 22.7%
- 2028(E): PER 36.1x, PBR 8.0x, ROE 24.5%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- MLCC Segment (Price Hike Transmission & 3Q Inflection):
- Pricing Dynamics: Commodity MLCC price increases initiated by tier-2 vendors (e.g., Yageo) are expanding SEMCO’s bargaining power over direct-supply enterprise clients.
- 3Q26 Demand Influx: Confluence of peak IT seasonality (strong Apple build plans) and mass production of the next-generation Vera Rubin platform. Vera Rubin MLCC content increases significantly (500k–600k units per VR NVL72 vs. 440k units per GB NVL72), severely tightening industry supply.
- Silicon Capacitors (Long-Term Demand Visibility):
- Disclosed silicon capacitor contracts validate the feasibility of securing multi-year LTAs within the passive components industry.
- Multiple CSPs are actively evaluating advanced packaging architectures from US semiconductor manufacturers, creating strong catalysts for follow-on contracts and subsequent earnings upgrades beyond 2027.
- FC-BGA Segment (2H26 Full Utilization & Pricing Upside):
- Global chipmakers are shifting from conservative quotes to aggressive bids to preemptively secure substrate capacity.
- Fab utilization is forecast to reach 100% in 2H26, providing substantial headroom for stronger-than-expected price increases and profitability expansion.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not as a cyclical passive component supplier exposed to short-term stock volatility, but as an indispensable AI hardware platform capturing dual up-cycles across both MLCC and FC-BGA. This perspective highlights the fundamental transmission of pricing power from commodity tier-2 hikes into direct contracts, the content surge driven by Vera Rubin deployments, and the structural margin expansion unlocked by 100% FC-BGA utilization and silicon capacitor LTAs.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include the pace of MLCC price realization during 3Q Vera Rubin volume manufacturing, follow-on silicon capacitor LTA awards from CSPs adopting advanced packaging architectures, the attainment of 100% capacity utilization in FC-BGA during 2H26, and the progression toward KRW 3.3 Trillion in operating profit by 2027. Progress on these fronts can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, investor relations disclosures, and official regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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