Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Dong-hee Han
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 220,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Strong productivity from MR-MUF in 8Hi products enables early order visibility for 2025 volumes and secures HBM market dominance, driving upward revisions to 2024 and 2025 operating profit forecasts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 220,000 (Raised by +16% from KRW 190,000). Derived by applying a Target PBR of 2.3x (2013 turnaround cycle PBR of 2.0x plus a 10% HBM premium) to the 2024–2025F average estimated BPS of KRW 95,775.
- 2024 Annual Forecasts:
- Revenue: KRW 61.01 Trillion (+86.3% YoY)
- Operating Profit: KRW 11.72 Trillion (Turnaround to Profit, revised up by +3%)
- Net Profit (Controlling Interest): KRW 7.42 Trillion (Turnaround to Profit)
- EPS: KRW 10,188
- 2025 Annual Forecasts:
- Revenue: KRW 80.25 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 22.37 Trillion (revised up by +18%), Net Profit KRW 15.54 Trillion (EPS KRW 21,347)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2024F): ROE 13.1%, PER 16.1x, PBR 1.9x, EV/EBITDA 5.3x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q1 2024 Earnings Outlook (Beating Market Consensus):
- Q1 Operating Profit projected at KRW 1.60 Trillion (+368% QoQ), beating consensus estimates (KRW 1.10 Trillion).
- DRAM: Bit Growth of -13% QoQ (in line with guidance) and ASP of +16% QoQ.
- NAND: Bit Growth of -4% QoQ (below guidance) and ASP of +18% QoQ.
- Conservative shipment strategies aimed at price recovery lead to above-expected Blended ASP gains, enhancing profitability alongside inventory valuation loss reversals.
- HBM Market Position & Technological Edge:
- The company’s leading market position in HBM is expected to persist at least through 2025 amid surging AI demand.
- Despite planned market entries by competitors, high productivity in 8Hi products via MR-MUF technology enhances order visibility for 2025 shipments and differentiates profitability.
- Supply Dynamics & Opportunity Cost Analysis:
- Slower macroeconomic recovery is expected to make the positive earnings impact of HBM even more prominent.
- Opportunity costs from commodity capacity loss due to HBM expansion remain limited, and any rise in opportunity costs upon macroeconomic recovery is expected to be offset by HBM premiums and commodity pricing elasticity.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix as a company set to maintain its market dominance in HBM at least through 2025, leveraging high manufacturing productivity from MR-MUF technology in 8Hi products to secure early order visibility for 2025 volumes. The perspective highlights that the company’s competitive edge in specialty HBM elevates its structural ROE relative to past historical cycles and drives differentiated profitability.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key parameters to monitor include whether the order visibility for 2025 volumes based on 8Hi MR-MUF remains solid amid competitor entry, and whether the stronger-than-expected ASP increases across DRAM and NAND continue to drive quarterly earnings expansion. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic financial reports.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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