Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Rok-ho Kim (RA Young-kyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 280,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Differentiated Blended ASP defense driven by maximizing 8-high HBM3E volumes and commencing 12-high shipments, creating attractive valuation appeal despite memory pricing adjustments
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 280,000 (12M, Maintained) / Base Share Price (2024-07-25): KRW 190,000 / Market Cap: KRW 138.32 Trillion
- Valuation & Investment Rationale:
- Downward revisions applied to 2024 and 2025 operating profit forecasts by 5% and 8% respectively due to adjusted memory pricing assumptions.
- BUY rating and target price of KRW 280,000 maintained as 12-month forward PBR compressed to 1.55x following the recent short-term correction, offering an attractive re-entry point.
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 71.11 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 24.79 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 17.28 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 96.89 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 40.01 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 29.23 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 23,736 → KRW 40,158
- BPS: KRW 90,064 → KRW 76,616 → KRW 99,583 → KRW 138,605
- PER: 24.49x → -11.30x → 8.78x → 5.19x
- PBR: 0.83x → 1.85x → 2.09x → 1.50x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.48x → 21.53x → 4.30x → 2.53x
- ROE: 3.56% → -15.61% → 27.93% → 34.62%
- DPS: KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue posted KRW 16.42 Trillion (+125% YoY, +32% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 5.47 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +89% QoQ), missing previous estimates.
- Drivers Behind Miss: Price increases in DRAM and NAND trailed assumptions, alongside a QoQ shipment decline in NAND. This reflects a high base effect following cumulative price increases (+57% in DRAM, +85% in NAND from 2Q23/3Q23 to 1Q24).
- Mix & One-offs: Early mix improvements from HBM and eSSD supported cumulative price outperformance over peers. Inventory valuation allowance reversal was KRW 300 Billion (below the estimated KRW 500 Billion).
- 2H24 Outlook & Key Variables:
- NAND Shipment Forecast: 2024 annual NAND shipment growth lowered from 16% to 12% due to consecutive negative growth in 2Q and 3Q, despite an expected volume rebound in 4Q24.
- Core Catalyst: Maximizing 8-high HBM3E volume in 3Q24 and initiating 12-high shipments in 4Q24 to unlock upside in DRAM Blended ASP.
- Commodity Market Dynamic: Limited commodity DRAM capacity additions make potential demand recovery across conventional servers, data centers, and AI PCs/smartphones a key variable.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a supplier vulnerable to repetitive cyclical downturns, but as a differentiated AI memory leader capable of maintaining superior DRAM pricing power over peers through disciplined CAPA allocation and high-value HBM shipments. Greater significance is placed on Blended ASP upside from 8-high volume expansion and 12-high commercial deliveries, as well as an attractive 12M forward PBR of 1.55x, rather than short-term forecast trims resulting from high base effects.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include whether 3Q24 8-high HBM3E output maximization and 4Q24 12-high commercial shipments successfully expand DRAM Blended ASP, the fulfillment of the revised 12% annual NAND shipment growth target, and the trajectory of conventional server/AI device demand under tight commodity DRAM supply constraints. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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