Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Kyobo Securities
Analyst : Bo-young Choi
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 260,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Sustained high profitability powered by expanding revenue contribution from AI-driven premium products (HBM3E and eSSD) and disciplined 2025 CapEx management
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 260,000 (Upgraded, reflecting upward revisions in 2025 forecasts) / Current Share Price: KRW 198,200
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.24 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.14 Trillion
- 2024(E): Revenue KRW 65.50 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.98 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 15.44 Trillion
- 2025(E): Revenue KRW 92.60 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 39.62 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 27.94 Trillion
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 97.60 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 43.30 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 29.89 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024E → 2025E → 2026E):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 21,145 → KRW 38,267 → KRW 40,940
- PER: 24.5x → -11.3x → 9.4x → 5.2x → 4.8x
- PBR: 0.9x → 1.9x → 2.1x → 1.5x → 1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.5x → 21.2x → 4.8x → 3.2x → 2.7x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 25.3% → 34.1% → 27.2%
- Operating Margin (OPM): 15.3% → -23.6% → 36.6% → 42.8% → 44.4%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue recorded KRW 17.57 Trillion (+94% YoY, +7% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 7.03 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +29% QoQ, OPM 40%), beating the consensus estimate of KRW 6.8 Trillion (including ~KRW 100 Billion valuation loss reversal).
- DRAM: Bit Growth was -3% QoQ while ASP surged +17% QoQ, delivering Operating Profit of KRW 6.19 Trillion (OPM 52.0%). Rapid growth in HBM sales and HBM3E surpassing HBM3 volume supported margin expansion.
- NAND: Bit Growth posted -17% QoQ while ASP rose +14% QoQ, achieving Operating Profit of KRW 795.2 Billion (OPM 17.2%). eSSD revenue reached ~60% of total NAND sales, confirming a strict profitability-driven strategy.
- 4Q24 Earnings Outlook:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 19.90 Trillion (+76% YoY, +13% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 8.30 Trillion (+2303% YoY, +18% QoQ, OPM 42%).
- DRAM: Bit Growth +5% QoQ, ASP +6% QoQ, Operating Profit KRW 7.14 Trillion (OPM 54.0%). HBM share within DRAM sales expected to reach 40% led by 12-high HBM3E volume shipments.
- NAND: Bit Growth +11% QoQ, ASP +4% QoQ, Operating Profit KRW 811.2 Billion (OPM 15.2%), supported by ongoing eSSD mix expansion.
- Investment & Capital Strategy:
- Despite macroeconomic market uncertainties, strong market leadership in HBM and eSSD is expected to drive earnings growth through 2024–2025.
- The announcement of a conservative CapEx plan for 2025 is seen as maintaining high operational efficiency and mitigating industry oversupply risks.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a commoditized memory manufacturer vulnerable to broader macroeconomic swings, but as a premium AI memory leader securing structurally elevated margins through dominant positions in high-value products (HBM3E, eSSD) while stabilizing cycle volatility via conservative CapEx discipline. Greater emphasis is placed on ASP expansion driven by AI product exposure and operational efficiency rather than aggressive capacity additions.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include the smooth shipment trajectory of 12-high HBM3E leading to a 40% HBM revenue share in DRAM in 4Q24, the sustainability of NAND profitability fueled by high eSSD mix, and the strict execution of conservative CapEx plans announced for 2025. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial reports.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
