Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hyundai Motor Securities
Analyst : Keun-chang Roh (RA Dong-wook Youn)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 265,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Unabated AI data center infrastructure demand and surging HBM3E shipments driving continuous Blended ASP expansion, effectively countering conventional memory down-cycle concerns
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 265,000 (Maintained; applying target P/B 2.0x to 2025E controlling BPS) / Base Share Price (2024-10-24): KRW 198,200 (Upside potential: 33.7%)
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 66.97 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.45 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 17.43 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 84.33 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 35.15 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 27.01 Trillion
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 93.29 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 38.59 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 30.41 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 23,947 → KRW 37,099 → KRW 41,772
- P/E: 24.5x → N/A → 8.2x → 5.3x → 4.7x
- P/B: 0.9x → 1.9x → 2.0x → 1.5x → 1.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.4x → 21.1x → 4.1x → 2.6x → 1.9x
- ROE: 3.6% → N/A → 28.0% → 32.2% → 27.2%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Review & 4Q24 Outlook:
- 3Q24 Results: Revenue posted KRW 17.5 Trillion (in line with consensus), Operating Profit came in at KRW 7.03 Trillion (+3.9% above consensus). Despite Bit Growth dropping -1.7% in DRAM and -15.0% in NAND, ASP increased +16.9% QoQ and +15.2% QoQ respectively, lifted by premium products (HBM accounted for 30% of DRAM revenue).
- 4Q24 Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 20.5 Trillion (+17.1% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 8.06 Trillion (+14.7% QoQ), supported by favorable FX and expanding Blackwell-oriented HBM3E shipments, raising HBM’s share of DRAM sales to ~40%.
- AI Semiconductor Infrastructure Demand:
- Despite concerns of an early memory winter sparked by weak legacy PC/Mobile demand and CXMT’s rise, AI data center Capex from CSPs, telcos, enterprises, and Sovereign AI is projected to sustain beyond 2025.
- Driven by multimodal training requirements and inference server deployments, the AI infrastructure investment cycle is deemed far from maturity.
- Evaluation of CXMT Competitive Risks:
- CXMT requires EUV technology for future premium DRAM migration, which is inaccessible due to US export controls. If placed on the US Entity List, CXMT’s competitive threat outside the Chinese domestic market will remain strictly limited.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a commoditized memory manufacturer vulnerable to conventional legacy demand slowdowns or rising Chinese competition, but as an indispensable infrastructure partner in the global AI buildout, capable of delivering superior earnings growth through its HBM3E technology leadership and pricing premiums. Greater weight is placed on the structural rise in Blended ASP and high-margin product mix expansion rather than short-term fluctuations in bit shipment volume.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include whether HBM revenue reaches the projected 40% threshold within total DRAM sales in 4Q24, the sustained execution and shipment volume of Blackwell-bound HBM3E amid ongoing AI data center investments in 2025, and the persistence of positive Blended ASP trends. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular annual financial reports.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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