Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Myung-sub Song
Investment Rating : Hold (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 200,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : While full-year 2025 operating profit forecasts are revised upward due to relative earnings resilience versus peers, the stock is expected to trade within a range of KRW 180,000–240,000 until leading economic indicators trend upward.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Closing Price (2025.02.28) KRW 190,200, Target Price (12M) KRW 200,000 (Maintained), Upside Potential 5.2%, Investment Rating Hold (Maintain)
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 138.466 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728.000 million shares, Capital KRW 3.658 trillion, Foreign Ownership 55.6%
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2025E Revenue: KRW 71.146 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 25.763 trillion (Upgraded from KRW 23.5 trillion), Net Income: KRW 18.012 trillion (EPS: KRW 24,741, BPS: KRW 122,186)
- 2026E Revenue: KRW 78.261 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 27.304 trillion, Net Income: KRW 19.451 trillion (EPS: KRW 26,718, BPS: KRW 147,622)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2025E: P/E 7.7x, P/B 1.6x, EV/EBITDA 3.4x, ROE 22.4%, Dividend Yield 0.3%
- 2026E: P/E 7.1x, P/B 1.3x, EV/EBITDA 2.8x, ROE 19.8%, Dividend Yield 0.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q25 Preview: Operating profit is projected at KRW 6.223 trillion (-23% QoQ). Bit growth is expected to contract by -12.6% for DRAM and -17.9% for NAND, with HBM shipments declining over 10% QoQ. ASP drops are estimated at -6.3% for DRAM and -10.0% for NAND.
- Divisional Breakdown:
- DRAM: Operating profit is projected at KRW 6.366 trillion (OPM 50.8%), demonstrating solid profitability.
- NAND: Operating profit is expected to swing to an operating loss of KRW 164.0 billion (OPM -4.0%), with potential inventory valuation losses.
- Competitive Outperformance: Backed by competitor delays in DDR5 and HBM, SK hynix continues to demonstrate superior earnings defense during the industry downcycle, prompting an upgrade in 2025 annual operating profit forecasts from KRW 23.5 trillion to KRW 25.8 trillion.
- Valuation Band & Trading Strategy: If HBM competitiveness holds, the floor valuation is expected around 1.5x P/B (KRW 180,000), while upside rebounds could reach the mid-point of the CY24 P/B band at 2.0x (KRW 240,000). A range-bound accumulation strategy is recommended until a definitive upturn in leading macroeconomic indicators is confirmed.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as a company demonstrating exceptional relative earnings resilience during an industry downcycle due to its leading competitive position in DDR5 and HBM over peers. Despite upgrading annual earnings forecasts, the perspective maintains a neutral stance, emphasizing that valuations will remain constrained within a KRW 180,000–240,000 trading band until leading economic indicators and underlying memory cycle trends clearly turn upward.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 1Q DRAM operating profit defends the KRW 6.37 trillion level, the extent of the 1Q NAND operating loss (-KRW 164 billion), the strength of the projected 2Q DRAM shipment rebound (+16.0% QoQ), and tangible signs of recovery in global leading macro indicators. These milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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