Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Kwangjin Kim
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Despite traditional seasonal off-peak effects, robust shipments of HBM3E and product mix improvements from 12-high sales expansion are driving continued earnings differentiation.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (4/24) KRW 178,300, Target Price KRW 290,000 (Maintained), Upside Potential 62.6%
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 129.803 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728,002 thousand, Foreign Ownership 53.3%
- Key Financial Projections:
- 2025E Revenue: KRW 87.164 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 36.620 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 27.950 trillion (EPS: KRW 40,616)
- 2026E Revenue: KRW 96.758 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 41.423 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 31.873 trillion (EPS: KRW 46,317)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- P/E (25E): 4.4x, P/B (25E): 1.3x, EV/EBITDA (25E): 2.7x, ROE (25E): 32.2%, Dividend Yield: 0.7%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q25 Preliminary Results Review: Revenue reached KRW 17.6 trillion (-11% QoQ) and operating profit KRW 7.4 trillion (-8% QoQ), meeting market expectations.
- DRAM & HBM Performance: Strong HBM3E shipments limited shipment contraction to -8% despite off-peak seasonality. Sales expansion of 12-high products (~25% of HBM) improved product mix, offsetting conventional DRAM price declines and keeping blended ASP flat QoQ. HBM’s revenue share within total DRAM expanded to approximately 50%.
- NAND Division: Maintained profitability despite declines in shipment volume (-17%) and ASP (-20%).
- 2Q25 Outlook & Catalysts: Operating profit is projected at KRW 8.8 trillion, sustaining earnings outperformance over peers. Acceleration of the HBM3E 12-high transition is expected to expand its shipment share above 50%, benefiting from a price premium of over 10% compared to 8-high products. Shipments for GB300 were officially reconfirmed to proceed as planned.
- Tariff Uncertainty: Direct export exposure to the US is limited to around 10–20%, and customers are actively demonstrating pull-in demand for inventory buildup. The stock price trades at a 2025E P/B of 1.3x, largely pricing in tariff risks.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as a market leader continuing to achieve structural earnings differentiation against peers through high-value HBM3E product mix improvements, even amid broad memory price softness. The perspective places greater significance on the company’s clear HBM competitiveness and steady delivery roadmap rather than short-term macroeconomic tariff concerns.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether the shipment share of HBM3E 12-high exceeds 50% in 2Q25, whether 2Q operating profit reaches the projected KRW 8.8 trillion backed by 12-high premiums, and whether customer pull-in demand remains resilient. These factors can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR disclosures, and periodic regulatory filings.
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