Fact Source: Kyobo Securities / Report Date: July 1, 2026
Investment Opinion & Target Price: BUY (Maintain) / 130,000 KRW (Maintain)
Key Momentum: Record-breaking growth in the domestic Korean operation driven by expanding sun/skin care order volumes from top clients, paired with structural valuation re-rating via global retail coverage expansion in the US and Europe.
📊 1. [Valuation Indicators & Investment Metrics Analysis]
- Investment Opinion & Target Price Trend: Maintained the ‘BUY’ rating and target price at KRW 130,000. Shattering the historical stereotype that Q2 marks the definitive annual earnings peak, domestic order intakes are projected to continue growing QoQ, solidifying Kolmar Korea as a sector Top-pick.
- Valuation Level: The stock currently trades at a 12M Fwd P/E of 12x, presenting highly attractive valuation metrics.
- Key Financial Metrics & Valuation Forecasts:
- Revenue: 2024: KRW 2,452B ➡️ 2025: KRW 2,722B ➡️ 2026E: KRW 3,062B ➡️ 2027E: KRW 3,460B ➡️ 2028E: KRW 3,872B
- Operating Profit: 2024: KRW 194B ➡️ 2025: KRW 240B ➡️ 2026E: KRW 317B ➡️ 2027E: KRW 379B ➡️ 2028E: KRW 445B
- Operating Margin (OP Margin): 2024: 7.9% ➡️ 2025: 8.8% ➡️ 2026E: 10.4% ➡️ 2027E: 11.0% ➡️ 2028E: 11.5%
- P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): 2024: 14.4x ➡️ 2025: 11.7x ➡️ 2026E: 13.4x ➡️ 2027E: 11.1x ➡️ 2028E: 9.4x
- P/B (Price-to-Book Ratio): 2024: 1.6x ➡️ 2025: 1.6x ➡️ 2026E: 2.2x ➡️ 2027E: 1.9x ➡️ 2028E: 1.6x
- ROE (Return on Equity): 2024: 12.5% ➡️ 2025: 14.7% ➡️ 2026E: 17.8% ➡️ 2027E: 18.2% ➡️ 2028E: 18.2%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities (TAM) & Detailed Earnings Estimates]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview & Estimated Data:
- Consolidated Revenue: Estimated at KRW 830.0B, up +13% Year-on-Year (YoY).
- Consolidated Operating Profit: Estimated at KRW 96.6B, up +32% YoY, slightly beating market expectations.
- Subsidiary Breakdown & Estimates:
- Korea Operation: Revenue at KRW 410.0B (+26% YoY), Operating Profit at KRW 64.1B (+31% YoY), OPM at 15.5% (+0.6%p YoY), displaying simultaneous top-line and bottom-line expansion. Order backlog is expected to remain firm with QoQ growth extending into Q3 due to robust sun/skin care pipelines. (The top-tier client registered +80% YoY growth in Q1 and maintains strong peak-season sun care momentum in Q2).
- Channels & PB Brands: Private Label (PB) brands are showing positive outcomes backed by US brick-and-mortar expansions and inbound tourism effects. Volumes for global Multinational Corporations (MNC) remain stable due to wider distribution coverage, with additional SKU expansions expected in H2. Door-to-door sales channels are switching back to growth fueled by 2026 new product rollouts.
- China Operation: Revenue estimated at KRW 54.9B (+10% YoY), Operating Profit at KRW 6.7B (+10% YoY).
- US Operation: Revenue estimated at KRW 16.0B (-13% YoY), Operating Profit at KRW -3.0B (Continuing deficit). While legacy anchor client orders remain restricted, the influx of new clients is expected to mitigate top-line declines.
- Global Channel Expansion & TAM:
- Proving unrivaled global competitiveness in basic skin care and sun protection, the core pillars of K-Beauty exports.
- Growth is diversifying from US Amazon digital sales into mainstream US offline hypermarkets and H&B retail chains (a market TAM at least twice the size of Amazon). Entry into the European market is also commencing in earnest.
📝 Editor’s Comment (by K-STOCK Editor)
Kolmar Korea’s 2Q26 preview clearly signals a structural transformation within the global cosmetics ODM sector. The traditional seasonal playbook—where performance peaked in Q2 and decelerated during the second half of the year—is actively dissolving. Sustained QoQ order momentum in the domestic Korean operation extending straight into Q3 underscores that global demand for K-Beauty sun and skin care products is a permanent structural shift rather than a transient trend. The primary catalyst to watch is the expansion beyond digital storefronts like Amazon into brick-and-mortar US hypermarkets and H&B chains, which represent a physical TAM at least twice the size of e-commerce channels. Although a near-term deficit persists within the US subsidiary, it is being contained via fresh client acquisition, while the staggering profitability of the core Korean operations (15.5% OPM) comfortably cushions the consolidated entity. Given a compelling valuation entry point at a 12M Fwd P/E of 12x, the risk-reward profiles favor a multiple expansion as global distribution coverage and product SKUs scale sequentially into H2.
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