Fact Source: Kyobo Securities / Report Date: July 1, 2026
Investment Opinion & Target Price: BUY (Maintain) / 4,000,000 KRW (Raised)
Key Momentum: Omnidirectional AI demand expansion prompting a structural supply shortage, with HBM3E monopoly and over 60% HBM4 market share driving high-margin product mix improvements and cycle longevity.
📊 1. [Valuation Indicators & Investment Metrics Analysis]
- Investment Opinion & Target Price Trend: Maintained the ‘BUY’ rating and aggressively raised the target price to KRW 4,000,000. The upward revision is backed by structural supply deficits extending through 2028, expanding Long-Term Agreements (LTA) that reduce volatility, and a potential valuation re-rating following the upcoming ADR listing scheduled for July 10.
- Key Financial Metrics & Valuation Forecasts:
- Revenue: 2024: KRW 66.19T ➡️ 2025: KRW 97.15T ➡️ 2026E: KRW 358.05T ➡️ 2027E: KRW 495.29T ➡️ 2028E: KRW 521.20T
- Operating Profit: 2024: KRW 23.47T ➡️ 2025: KRW 47.21T ➡️ 2026E: KRW 279.18T ➡️ 2027E: KRW 382.73T ➡️ 2028E: KRW 399.50T
- P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): 2024: 6.4x ➡️ 2025: 11.0x ➡️ 2026E: 7.8x ➡️ 2027E: 5.7x ➡️ 2028E: 5.3x
- P/B (Price-to-Book Ratio): 2024: 1.7x ➡️ 2025: 3.9x ➡️ 2026E: 5.2x ➡️ 2027E: 2.7x ➡️ 2028E: 1.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 2024: 3.8x ➡️ 2025: 7.6x ➡️ 2026E: 6.0x ➡️ 2027E: 3.8x ➡️ 2028E: 2.8x
- ROE (Return on Equity): 2024: 31.1% ➡️ 2025: 44.2% ➡️ 2026E: 100.7% ➡️ 2027E: 63.4% ➡️ 2028E: 40.7%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities (TAM) & Detailed Earnings Estimates]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview & Estimated Data:
- Consolidated Revenue: Estimated at KRW 83.5T, jumping +275.7% YoY and +58.8% QoQ.
- Operating Profit: Estimated at KRW 63.5T, soaring +589.0% YoY and +68.8% QoQ, meeting the market consensus of approximately KRW 63.0T.
- OP Margin: Projecting a historic 76.0% overall operating profit margin, supported by memory price hikes beating initial assumptions and favorable foreign exchange tailwinds from KRW weakness.
- Segment Breakdown (2Q26):
- DRAM: Bit Growth (B/G) +8%, ASP +36%, Operating Profit estimated at KRW 51.3T (OP Margin 83.0%). Price increases are outpacing volume shipments, with high-exposure HBM sales demonstrating superior pricing power and margin defenses relative to legacy memory.
- NAND: Bit Growth (B/G) +13%, ASP +60%, Operating Profit estimated at KRW 12.1T (OP Margin 57.0%).
- H2 Outlook & Future Guidance:
- For full-year 2026F, Revenue is projected at KRW 358.0T (+268.6% YoY) and Operating Profit at KRW 279.1T (+461.0% YoY, OPM 78%). Earnings momentum is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4 as legacy DRAM prices (centered on LPDDR) trend upward and HBM4 contributions kick in.
- Ongoing 2027 HBM price negotiations present further upside potential to the current forecast models.
📝 Editor’s Comment (by K-STOCK Editor)
SK Hynix’s projected 2Q26 performance cements its position as an unrivaled pure-play beneficiary of the global AI expansion. While legacy memory cycles historically suffered from immense pricing volatility, SK Hynix has fundamentally altered its financial profile. By locking in long-term contracts (LTAs) backed by a virtual monopoly in HBM3E and an anticipated market share exceeding 60% for HBM4, the company has heavily mitigated cyclical downside risks. An estimated DRAM operating margin of 83.0% in Q2 is a testament to extraordinary pricing power that outpaces baseline volume increases. Furthermore, the upcoming ADR listing on July 10 serves as a pivotal liquidity and valuation catalyst, bridging the valuation gap by expanding the global institutional investor base. Given that 2027 HBM pricing negotiations are already underway with favorable leverage, the raised target price of KRW 4,000,000 reflects justified multi-year fundamental upgrades rather than near-term sentiment peaks.
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