Fact Source: DS Investment & Securities / Report Date: July 1, 2026
Investment Opinion & Target Price: BUY (Maintain) / 300,000 KRW (Maintain)
Key Momentum: Securing a non-China nickel value chain via large-scale capital raising to acquire a stake in the BNSI smelter, driving mid-to-long-term earnings visibility
📊 1. [Valuation Indicators & Investment Metrics Analysis]
- Investment Opinion & Target Price Trend: The ‘BUY’ rating and the target price of KRW 300,000 are firmly maintained. Although a large-scale rights offering was announced, the dilutive impact is analyzed to be limited once mid-to-long-term performance guidance is fully reflected.
- Details of Capital Raise:
- The company announced a capital raise of approximately KRW 1.2T by issuing 9,900,990 common shares.
- The dilution ratio stands at 10.12%, with the new shares scheduled to be listed on November 5.
- Key Financial Metrics & Valuation Forecasts:
- Revenue: 2024: KRW 2.77T ➡️ 2025: KRW 2.53T ➡️ 2026F: KRW 3.16T ➡️ 2027F: KRW 4.39T
- Operating Profit: 2024: KRW -34.0B ➡️ 2025: KRW 143.0B ➡️ 2026F: KRW 121.0B ➡️ 2027F: KRW 296.0B
- P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): 2024: -111.2x ➡️ 2025: 363.6x ➡️ 2026F: 566.6x ➡️ 2027F: 151.8x
- P/B (Price-to-Book Ratio): 2024: 6.3x ➡️ 2025: 8.3x ➡️ 2026F: 12.2x ➡️ 2027F: 11.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 2024: 161.2x ➡️ 2025: 75.9x ➡️ 2026F: 145.8x ➡️ 2027F: 62.3x
- ROE (Return on Equity): 2024: -6.3% ➡️ 2025: 2.3% ➡️ 2026F: 1.9% ➡️ 2027F: 7.7%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities (TAM) & Detailed Earnings Estimates]
- Allocation and Usage of Raised Capital:
- Of the total capital raised, 64% (KRW 765.0B) will be allocated to acquire a stake in the BNSI nickel smelter located in the IGIP complex, Indonesia.
- The remaining funds will be distributed as follows: KRW 150.0B for a Hungary facility expansion, KRW 150.0B for a domestic facility, and KRW 135.0B for working capital.
- Smelter Capacity & Strategic Alignment for U.S. Compliance:
- BNSI targets commercial operation in 2Q27 with an annual capacity of 90,000 tons. EcoPro BM will secure an effective stake of 19.9% in BNSI, establishing a structural foundation to recognize BNSI on a consolidated basis.
- This direct ownership bypasses compliance risks under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s Non-FEOC rules, as Chinese minority stakes are strictly limited (e.g., Chinese partner GEM’s stake is capped at 21%).
- Earnings Contributions & Long-Term Projections:
- For 2027F, BNSI is conservatively projected to generate a revenue of KRW 1.5T and an operating profit of KRW 150.0B (assuming a conservative 10% OPM at $19/kg for 54,000 tons during the ramp-up stage).
- Taking into account the non-controlling interest slice, EcoPro BM is expected to recognize an additional net profit of approximately KRW 23.0B. This incremental gain will completely offset the -9% YoY dilution from the stock issuance, resulting in a +10% YoY growth for 2027F EPS.
📝 Editor’s Comment (by K-STOCK Editor)
EcoPro BM’s choice to execute a KRW 1.2T rights offering presents a double-edged sword that the market is currently processing. From a short-term perspective, equity dilution (~10.12%) inevitably creates a technical overhead on the stock price. However, a granular look at the capital allocation reveals a sharp strategic pivot: 64% of the proceeds are being deployed directly into upstream asset ownership in Indonesia to isolate and secure a non-FEOC compliant nickel supply chain. Unlike historical joint ventures where high Chinese equity stakes limited long-term upside and created regulatory bottlenecks, this direct stake in BNSI positions EcoPro BM to capture consolidated revenue streams while safely navigating Western regulatory mandates. Financially, the projected 2027F net profit addition of KRW 23.0B mathematically nullifies the dilution hurdle, turning the EPS trajectory back to a positive growth of +10% YoY. Consequently, the overarching theme here is a trade-off between immediate share dilution and enhanced structural visibility; downward pressure on the stock is expected to ease gradually as the 2Q27 operational timeline nears realization.
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