Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Surim Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Sustained structural earnings expansion driven by persistent memory undersupply through 2027, 2H volume ramp of 1c-nm/4nm-based HBM4, and near-term visibility on new 2nm foundry client acquisitions.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; Target Price maintained at KRW 300,000 (32.7% upside potential based on April 29, 2026 closing price of KRW 226,000)
- Valuation Multiples (Current Price): 2026F PER of 4.9x and PBR of 2.2x (2027F PER of 3.7x and PBR of 1.5x)
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (2023 ~ 2027F):
- 2023: Revenue KRW 258.94T, OP KRW 6.57T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 14.47T, EPS KRW 2,225, ROE 4.1%, PER 35.3x, PBR 1.5x, EV/EBITDA 9.7x
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 5,433, ROE 9.0%, PER 9.8x, PBR 0.9x, EV/EBITDA 3.5x
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 43.56T, EPS KRW 7,065, ROE 10.9%, PER 26.9x, PBR 3.2x, EV/EBITDA 12.7x
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 651.42T, OP KRW 312.29T (OPM 47.9%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 276.92T, EPS KRW 46,186 (+553.7% YoY), ROE 51.0%, PER 4.9x, PBR 2.2x, EV/EBITDA 3.2x
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 760.83T, OP KRW 403.94T (OPM 53.1%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 356.80T, EPS KRW 60,309 (+30.6% YoY), ROE 42.0%, PER 3.7x, PBR 1.5x, EV/EBITDA 1.8x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Financial Review:
- Revenue KRW 133.9T (+43% QoQ) and Operating Profit KRW 57.2T (+185% QoQ, OPM 43%)
- Operating Profit by Segment: DS KRW 53.7T (DRAM KRW 42.9T / OPM 80%, NAND KRW 11.8T / OPM 56%, LSI/Foundry -KRW 1.0T), DX KRW 3.0T, SDC KRW 0.4T, Harman KRW 0.2T
- 2Q26 Financial Projections:
- Revenue KRW 160.6T (+20% QoQ) and Operating Profit KRW 79.3T (+39% QoQ, OPM 49%), with DS division OP projected at KRW 75.9T
- DRAM: B/G +5%, ASP +30%
- NAND: B/G +3%, ASP +41%
- Strategic Drivers across Memory & Foundry:
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: Supply fulfillment rates stand at historical lows, with 2027 client demand orders already arriving; supply deficits are projected to widen further in 2027 compared to 2026 (no oversupply risks seen through 1H28)
- HBM4 Competitiveness: Tech validation secured via 1c-nm DRAM and 4nm logic base dies, with 2H volume shipments driving sequential operating profit gains
- Foundry Improvements: High probability of securing additional 2nm foundry customers in the near term, accompanied by legacy node migrations and sequential 8-inch line closures
- Labor Strike Assessment: Production disruptions from short-term strikes are limited and serve as an upward price catalyst, posing minimal downside risk to shares
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an integrated semiconductor leader capitalizing on a record memory supply deficit through advanced 1c-nm and 4nm base die technology in HBM4, alongside a visible turnaround in its foundry business. This perspective looks past short-term labor concerns and non-memory losses, placing strategic weight on the structural widening of the supply gap through 2027 and customer wins in next-generation 2nm foundry processes.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis holds true over time, key verification checkpoints include the sustained quarterly ASP increases and operating margins in DRAM and NAND, the smooth execution and commercial shipments of 1c-nm HBM4 in 2H26, and official contract confirmations for 2nm foundry clients alongside legacy fab restructuring. These milestones can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings reports, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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