Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities (Analyst: Yuak Park)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 430,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Despite near-term earnings moderation from 2Q26 bonus provisions, operating profit is projected to reach KRW 114T in 3Q26 supported by HBM4 and eSSD market momentum
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Sector Top Pick maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 430,000 (Current price KRW 339,500 as of 2026.06.26)
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.9T, Operating Profit KRW 32.7T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 33.6T
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 333.6T, Operating Profit KRW 43.6T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 44.3T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 723.6T, Operating Profit KRW 372.9T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 292.5T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 820.1T, Operating Profit KRW 421.3T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 324.5T
- Valuation Multiples & Financial Indicators:
- EPS: 2025A KRW 6,564 → 2026F KRW 43,429 → 2027F KRW 48,177
- PER: 2025A 18.3x → 2026F 7.8x → 2027F 7.0x
- PBR: 2025A 1.9x → 2026F 3.5x (2026E BPS KRW 98,219) → 2027F 2.3x
- ROE: 2025A 10.8% → 2026F 53.9% → 2027F 39.6%
- EV/EBITDA: 2025A 7.9x → 2026F 2.6x → 2027F 1.8x
- Dividend Yield (2026E): 4.5%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated revenue projected at KRW 183T (+36% QoQ) and operating profit at KRW 89T (+56% QoQ); below prior expectation of KRW 100T due to larger-than-expected employee incentive provisions despite strong commodity DRAM (+58% QoQ) and NAND (+75% QoQ) ASP gains.
- Segment Operating Profit Estimates: DS KRW 88.9T (+65% QoQ), SDC KRW 0.2T (-40% QoQ), DX(VD/DA) KRW 0.1T (-33% QoQ), DX(MX/NW) -KRW 0.6T (turned to deficit).
- Foundry/S.LSI: Operating losses expected to persist due to one-off expenses and sluggish 8-inch fab utilization, despite HBM4 base die and Exynos 2600 production.
- 3Q26 Earnings Outlook:
- Revenue projected at KRW 206T (+13% QoQ) and operating profit at KRW 114T (+28% QoQ), meeting market consensus (FnGuide: Revenue KRW 203T, Operating Profit KRW 110T).
- Segment Operating Profit Outlook: DS KRW 113.3T (+28% QoQ), SDC KRW 1.0T (+337% QoQ), DX(MX/NW) -KRW 0.1T (deficit continues), DX(VD/DA) -KRW 0.03T (turned to deficit).
- Industry Dynamics & Second-Half Catalysts:
- Component cost inflation has triggered price increases in PCs and smartphones, leading PC-OEMs and smartphone makers toward conservative procurement strategies and limiting further upside to memory price gains.
- Second-half stock price volatility is expected to widen as positive catalysts (HBM4 and eSSD market share gains) interact with market concerns over rising market share from Chinese memory competitors.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company whose near-term 2Q26 earnings will temporarily miss expectations due to bonus provisions and persistent foundry deficits, but whose underlying profitability remains anchored by a projected 3Q26 operating profit rebound to KRW 114T and product momentum in HBM4 and eSSD. This perspective emphasizes a balanced view between positive product market share gains and macro/competitive headwinds, including conservative customer purchasing strategies and rising Chinese memory competition, rather than focusing solely on single-quarter provision impacts.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include whether 3Q26 consolidated operating profit achieves KRW 114T (with DS reaching KRW 113.3T), the pace of market share gains in HBM4 and eSSD, and the trajectory of memory price momentum alongside competitive share shifts from Chinese memory makers. These developments can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, periodic financial reports, and official company IR disclosures.
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