Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Kang-ho Park, Ji-won Seo (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 550,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Strong earnings growth projected on the back of potential ASP improvements from 2Q26 and expected 2H26 price hikes alongside high-margin mix upgrades across FC-BGA and MLCC driven by expanding AI server and data center demand
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; 6-month Target Price maintained at KRW 550,000 (vs. current price of KRW 462,000).
- 1Q26 Earnings Forecast (Analyst Estimates):
- Revenue: KRW 3.058 Trillion (+11.7% YoY, +5.4% QoQ, in line with consensus).
- Operating Profit: KRW 271.0 Billion (+35.3% YoY, +13.3% QoQ, in line with consensus).
- Net Profit: KRW 224.0 Billion (+67.5% YoY, +0.5% QoQ, beating consensus).
- 2Q26 Outlook:
- Revenue: KRW 3.074 Trillion (+10.4% YoY, +0.5% QoQ).
- Operating Profit: KRW 352.0 Billion (+65.4% YoY, +29.9% QoQ, OPM 11.5%).
- Net Profit: KRW 284.0 Billion (+119.1% YoY, +26.9% QoQ).
- Annual Financial Projections (2026F – 2028F):
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 12.712 Trillion (all-time high) / Operating Profit KRW 1.411 Trillion (+54.5% YoY, highest since 2022) / Controlling Net Profit KRW 1.131 Trillion
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 13.802 Trillion / Operating Profit KRW 1.664 Trillion / Controlling Net Profit KRW 1.297 Trillion
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 14.219 Trillion / Operating Profit KRW 1.715 Trillion / Controlling Net Profit KRW 1.342 Trillion
- Key Financial Multiples (2026F):
- EPS: KRW 14,569 / BPS: KRW 137,940
- P/E: 29.3x / P/B: 3.3x
- ROE: 11.2% / Operating Margin (OPM): 11.1%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Package Solutions Division (FC-BGA):
- 2026 Package Solutions revenue is projected at KRW 2.886 Trillion (+25.4% YoY), with FC-BGA revenue reaching KRW 1.683 Trillion (+44.4% YoY) and accounting for ~60% of total substrate revenue.
- Rapid commercialization of AI/data center FC-BGA alongside new orders secured from global ASIC and HBM customers.
- FC-BGA capacity utilization is expected to approach 95–100% by 4Q26, with supply shortages projected for 2027 relative to surging demand.
- Profitability momentum is expected to extend into 2027, driven by potential 2H26 price hikes, high-end product mix enrichment, and yield improvements.
- Component Division (MLCC):
- 2026 Component revenue estimated at KRW 5.885 Trillion (+13.2% YoY), with MLCC generating KRW 5.390 Trillion (+14.3% YoY).
- The analyst highlights potential upward earnings revisions supported by expected ASP improvements across both FC-BGA and MLCC starting from 2Q26 onward and projected 2H26 price increases.
- Company-Wide Growth:
- Package Solutions outperforming total company top-line growth (+12.4% YoY), driving corporate profitability through higher value-added exposure.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not merely as a conventional components vendor tied to consumer IT cycles, but as a core AI hardware beneficiary actively strengthening its pricing power and product mix across high-layer substrates and passive components. The analytical thesis places greater emphasis on potential ASP improvements across FC-BGA and MLCC from 2Q26 onward, projected 2H26 price hikes, and capacity utilization approaching 100% in high-end FC-BGA lines by year-end, rather than short-term 1Q performance variations.
To assess whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include the actual progression of blended ASP from 2Q26 onward, the potential realization of 2H26 price increases across FC-BGA and MLCC lines, FC-BGA utilization rates reaching the 95–100% range in 4Q26, and the progression toward achieving projected annual operating profit of KRW 1.41 Trillion supported by expanding AI/server shipments. These variables can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, periodic regulatory filings (quarterly and annual reports), and DART disclosures.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
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