Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Soo-rim Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Expanding HBM3e 8-high shipments and smooth 12-high qualification tests, Solidigm fab utilization recovery via QLC eSSD, and 2025 earnings upgrades driven by doubling HBM shipments
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 290,000 (Upgraded) / Base Share Price (2024-06-21): KRW 234,000 (Upside potential: 23.9%) / Market Cap: KRW 170.35 Trillion
- Target Price Valuation Logic:
- Target price upgraded to KRW 290,000 following an upward revision of the 2025 operating profit forecast to KRW 32.0 Trillion.
- Derived by applying a Target P/B multiple of 2.3x to 2025E BPS of KRW 126,045.
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2021: Revenue KRW 42.998 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 12.410 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 9.602 Trillion
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.622 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.809 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.230 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.766 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.730 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.112 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 67.434 Trillion (KRW 68 Trillion in text, +107.6% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 23.314 Trillion (KRW 23.9 Trillion in text, turning profitable YoY), Controlling Net Profit KRW 16.889 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 88.339 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 31.802 Trillion (KRW 32 Trillion in text), Controlling Net Profit KRW 22.494 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F):
- EPS: KRW 13,190 → KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 23,199 → KRW 30,898
- PER: 9.9x → 24.5x → -11.3x → 10.1x → 7.6x
- PBR: 1.5x → 0.9x → 1.9x → 2.5x → 1.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.7x → 3.5x → 21.7x → 4.6x → 3.3x
- ROE: 16.8% → 3.6% → -15.6% → 27.5% → 28.0%
- Operating Margin: 28.9% → 15.3% → -23.6% → 34.6% → 36.0%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q24 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 15.9 Trillion (+27.8% QoQ, +117.4% YoY) and Operating Profit at KRW 5.0 Trillion (+74.9% QoQ, turning profitable YoY).
- DRAM: Bit Growth +15% QoQ, ASP +15% QoQ estimated on steady HBM revenue expansion and commodity DRAM ASP increases.
- NAND: Bit Growth +1% QoQ, ASP +19% QoQ estimated. Strong storage demand is accelerating QLC eSSD sales, lifting Solidigm fab utilization (the primary driver of last year’s NAND losses).
- HBM Market Competitiveness & Platform Roadmap:
- HBM3e Execution: Supplying 8-high HBM3e to major customers while 12-high qualification tests are progressing smoothly.
- Competitive Moat: HBM competitiveness remains solid as competitors have yet to demonstrate meaningful new product shipments. Discussions regarding 2025 HBM supply plans will proceed in 3Q24.
- Next-Gen AI Roadmap: With the key customer announcing the 2H ramp of Blackwell followed by the 2026 Rubin platform featuring HBM4, long-term HBM demand visibility is reinforced. Demand is broadening across key customers and ASIC chip developers.
- 2025 HBM & Commodity Dynamics:
- Total HBM shipment volume in 2025 is projected to more than double compared to 2024.
- Wafer capacity allocation to HBM will maintain a favorable supply-demand environment for commodity memory.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a vendor vulnerable to competitive entry risks, but as the premier Top Pick in the global AI semiconductor value chain, supported by 8-high HBM3e supply leadership, smooth 12-high qualification tests, and long-term demand visibility extending through Blackwell to the 2026 Rubin (HBM4) architecture. Greater significance is attached to doubling HBM shipments in 2025 and favorable commodity supply dynamics driven by HBM wafer absorption rather than short-term multiple re-rating concerns.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include achieving 2Q24 operating profit of KRW 5.0 Trillion, successful qualification of 12-high HBM3e alongside finalized 2025 supply commitments in 3Q24, and confirming that 2025 HBM shipment volume doubles while Solidigm maintains profitable fab utilization. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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