Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Rok-ho Kim (RA Young-kyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 280,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Re-upgraded 2024 and 2025 operating profit forecasts driven by tight supply-demand conditions, memory price increases, 8-high HBM 3E volume expansion, and upcoming 12-high commercial supply
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 280,000 (12M, Upgraded) / Base Share Price (2024-07-10): KRW 239,000 / Market Cap: KRW 173.99 Trillion
- Target Price Valuation Logic:
- Target price raised to KRW 280,000 by applying a Target PBR of 2.1x to 12-month forward BPS.
- Reaffirmed as Top Pick in the sector due to unmatched leadership in HBM and structural differentiation from historical cycle patterns.
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 72.97 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 26.20 Trillion (table indicates KRW 26.20 Trillion; revised up from KRW 23.3 Trillion), Net Profit KRW 18.29 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 101.51 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 43.29 Trillion (text indicates KRW 43.3 Trillion; revised up from KRW 39.0 Trillion), Net Profit KRW 31.64 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 25,130 → KRW 43,468
- BPS: KRW 90,064 → KRW 76,616 → KRW 100,612 → KRW 142,945
- PER: 24.49x → -11.30x → 9.49x → 5.49x
- PBR: 0.83x → 1.85x → 2.37배 → 1.67x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.48x → 21.53x → 4.38x → 2.47x
- ROE: 3.56% → -15.61% → 29.39% → 36.63%
- DPS: KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q24 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 16.85 Trillion (+131% YoY, +36% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 5.62 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +95% QoQ), beating upwardly trending market consensus.
- DRAM Segment: Bit Growth +14% QoQ (in line with guidance), ASP +21% QoQ. Bit shipments will outperform competitors driven by base effects and initial 8-high HBM 3E deliveries.
- NAND Segment: Bit Growth +1% QoQ (in line with guidance), ASP +20% QoQ. Price growth remains strong even following steep prior increases driven by eSSD.
- One-off Items: Inventory valuation allowance reversals estimated under KRW 0.5 Trillion.
- 2024 & 2025 Estimate Upgrades:
- Upward Revision Drivers: Maintained bit growth assumptions while raising memory price and USD/KRW exchange rate assumptions (2025 FX assumption raised from 1,311 to 1,351 KRW/USD).
- Upside Catalysts: ① Blended DRAM ASP upside from full-scale 8-high HBM 3E volume recognition in 2H24, and ② Demand upside from AI PC rollouts and conventional server demand recovery.
- Downside Risks: Supply-demand easing from potential global macroeconomic recession (supply-side risk remains strictly limited).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a cyclical memory supplier exposed to multiple compression after a sharp run-up, but as a market-leading AI semiconductor powerhouse with clear visibility toward a KRW 200 Trillion market capitalization. Greater weight is placed on the re-upgraded operating profit trajectory (KRW 26.2 Trillion in 2024 and KRW 43.3 Trillion in 2025) driven by 8-high HBM 3E volume expansion and 12-high commercial supply rather than macro sentiment anxieties.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include achieving 2Q24 operating profit of KRW 5.62 Trillion to beat consensus, commercial execution of 8-high HBM 3E volume growth and 12-high shipments driving Blended ASP expansion in 2H24, and sustaining the 2025 operating profit target of KRW 43.3 Trillion amid recovering server demand. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
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