Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Yuanta Securities Korea
Analyst : Gil-hyun Baik
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 260,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Sustained global memory leadership into 2025–2026 driven by robust AI server demand for HBM and eSSD alongside upcoming new server CPU platform launches, overcoming legacy cyclical concerns
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 260,000 (Upgraded; applying Target PBR 1.8x to 2025E BPS of KRW 147,000) / Base Share Price (2024-10-24): KRW 198,200 (Upside potential: 31%)
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022A: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023A: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024F: Revenue KRW 66.81 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.40 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 17.93 Trillion
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 91.79 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 37.33 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 28.83 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022A → 2023A → 2024F → 2025F):
- PER: 33.3x → -8.6x → 8.0x → 5.0x
- PBR: 1.1x → 1.4x → 1.9x → 1.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.4x → 17.5x → 4.1x → 2.6x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 28.5% → 33.2%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue posted KRW 17.57 Trillion (+94% YoY, +7.0% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 7.03 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +28.6% QoQ, OPM 40.0%), beating consensus (KRW 6.76 Trillion).
- DRAM Segment: Revenue reached KRW 12.0 Trillion (+101% YoY, +7% QoQ) and Operating Profit was KRW 5.6 Trillion (OPM 46%, +885% YoY, +21% QoQ), fueled by a 70% QoQ surge in HBM revenue (estimated DRAM ASP +15% QoQ).
- NAND Segment: Revenue recorded KRW 4.9 Trillion (+103% YoY, -4% QoQ) and Operating Profit posted KRW 1.2 Trillion (OPM 25%, turning profitable YoY, +9% QoQ), driven by a 20% QoQ increase in eSSD revenue (estimated NAND ASP +16% QoQ). Solidigm’s full-year 2024 revenue is projected to exceed KRW 8 Trillion.
- 4Q24 Outlook:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 20.4 Trillion (+80% YoY, +16% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 8.0 Trillion (OPM 39%, +2217% YoY, +14% QoQ).
- Segment Outlook: DRAM operating profit expected at KRW 6.6 Trillion (OPM 47%, driven by HBM/DDR5 demand), NAND operating profit expected at KRW 1.4 Trillion (OPM 25%, supported by high eSSD mix). ASP expected to increase +7% QoQ for DRAM and +5% QoQ for NAND.
- Medium-Term Market Drivers:
- Despite potential near-term legacy price deceleration due to Chinese suppliers, solid AI server demand is expected to persist through 2025–2026.
- Re-acceleration catalysts in 2H25: ① Increased memory content per device driven by AI Edge Device adoption in 2025–2026, ② New CPU platform launches driving conventional server demand recovery (2025 DRAM Bit Growth projected at +17%), ③ Disciplined NAND industry Capex limiting sharp price declines.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a generic memory player vulnerable to Chinese market entry or commodity demand headwinds, but as a leading AI memory powerhouse that leverages unmatched competitiveness in high-value products (HBM, eSSD) to preserve pricing power and superior profitability into the 2025–2026 platform refresh cycle. Greater emphasis is placed on structural AI data center demand and the upcoming 2H25 server and edge device recovery rather than short-term legacy market fluctuations.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include whether 4Q24 DRAM operating profit reaches the projected KRW 6.6 Trillion led by HBM/DDR5, Solidigm’s full-year 2024 revenue surpasses KRW 8 Trillion alongside sustained eSSD margins, and whether the 2025 server CPU platform rollout successfully translates into the projected +17% DRAM bit demand growth. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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