Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Dong-hee Han, Je-min Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Proving strong downcycle resilience via high-value HBM product mix improvements despite commodity price drops, the company is poised to re-enter a profit growth cycle in 2Q25 following a brief 1Q pause, sustaining full-year operating profit projections around KRW 32.6–33.0 trillion.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (Jan 3, 2025) KRW 181,900, Target Price KRW 300,000 (Maintained), Upside Potential 64.9%, Investment Rating BUY (Maintained)
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 132.424 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728.000 million shares, 52-Week High/Low KRW 241,000 / KRW 131,000
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024E Revenue: KRW 66.859 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 23.449 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 18.361 trillion (EPS: KRW 25,221, Turned to Profit)
- 2025E Revenue: KRW 84.564 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 32.640 trillion (~KRW 33.0 trillion in text, +39% YoY), Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 24.364 trillion (EPS: KRW 33,467)
- 2026E Revenue: KRW 100.631 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 43.372 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 32.544 trillion (EPS: KRW 44,703)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2024E: P/E 6.9x, P/B 1.7x, EV/EBITDA 4.0x, ROE 29.3%
- 2025E: P/E 5.4x, P/B 1.4x, EV/EBITDA 2.7x, ROE 29.2%
- 2026E: P/E 4.1x, P/B 1.0x, EV/EBITDA 1.8x, ROE 29.4%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q24 Preview: Consolidated operating profit is projected to reach a solid KRW 8.1 trillion (+15% QoQ). Despite sustained declines in commodity memory prices, improved mix centered on HBM proves strong cycle defense.
- 4Q24 Divisional Breakdown:
- DRAM: Bit growth of +7% and ASP increase of +9% expected. HBM shipment expansion is forecast to drive HBM revenue to 40% (+10%p QoQ) of total DRAM sales.
- NAND: Impacted by consumer demand softness, bit growth is estimated at +7% and ASP at -5% QoQ.
- 1Q25 & 2Q25 Quarterly Trajectory: 1Q25 operating profit is projected to experience a temporary sequential contraction to KRW 6.4 trillion (-20% QoQ) due to seasonality and delayed new GPU launches. However, earnings growth is expected to resume in 2Q25 alongside normalized customer inventory levels.
- Upward Floor Re-rating & 2Q Turning Point: Given HBM’s full-year contract structure, the 1Q25 volume baseline indicates intensified HBM shipment strength over the remainder of 2025. With 2026 HBM supply agreements gaining visibility by late 2Q25, the second quarter will serve as the key inflection point for share price appreciation.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as the top sector pick demonstrating unmatched cyclical resilience through high-value HBM mix optimization, establishing a significantly higher earnings trough in the AI cycle compared to past downturns despite commodity pricing pressure. The perspective prioritizes the resumption of sequential profit growth in 2Q25 and the late-2Q visibility of 2026 HBM long-term contracts over temporary first-quarter seasonal moderation.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 4Q24 operating profit reaches KRW 8.1 trillion with HBM accounting for 40% of DRAM revenue, whether 1Q25 operating profit successfully defends the KRW 6.4 trillion floor, and whether 2Q25 delivers a clear profit rebound supported by 2026 HBM contract formalization. These milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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