Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim, Jaeho Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 277,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Driven by an upward revision of 2025 operating profit forecasts to KRW 34.8 trillion, expanded revenue share in HBM and eSSD, and contract stability, the target price is raised to KRW 277,000.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (1/23/25) KRW 219,500, Target Price KRW 277,000 (Raised by 2.6%), Upside Potential 26.2%, Rating BUY (Maintained)
- Target Price Methodology: Revised 2025 operating profit forecast upward by 5.9% to KRW 34.8 trillion (from KRW 32.8 trillion) while maintaining the Target P/B multiple at 2.0x.
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 159.797 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728 million shares (Floating Share Ratio: 74.1%), 52-Week High/Low KRW 241,000 / KRW 132,300, Foreign Ownership 55.9%
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024F Revenue: KRW 66.193 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 23.468 trillion (Consensus: KRW 23.392 trillion), Net Income: KRW 18.085 trillion (EPS: KRW 24,842, Turned to Profit)
- 2025F Revenue: KRW 83.252 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 34.778 trillion (+48.2% YoY), Net Income: KRW 27.993 trillion (EPS: KRW 38,452, +54.8% YoY)
- 2026F Revenue: KRW 108.326 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 50.848 trillion, Net Income: KRW 41.775 trillion (EPS: KRW 57,383, +49.2% YoY)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2025F: P/E 5.7x, P/B 1.6x, ROE 32.9%, Operating Margin 41.8%, Dividend Yield 0.5%
- 2026F: P/E 3.8x, P/B 1.1x, ROE 35.1%, Operating Margin 46.9%, Dividend Yield 0.5%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q24 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 19.8 trillion (+12.5% QoQ) and operating profit KRW 8.1 trillion (+15.0% QoQ), meeting market expectations. Expanded HBM3E mix and initial 12-high shipments offset conventional memory downcycle headwinds.
- 1Q25 & Annual Outlook: 1Q is projected to undergo a temporary pause with revenue of KRW 17.6 trillion (-10.9% QoQ) and operating profit of KRW 6.4 trillion (-20.5% QoQ). Despite NAND contraction (B/G -17%, ASP -10%) and conventional DRAM price drops (-12.0%), blended DRAM ASP is projected to rise +1.6% due to HBM mix. Quarterly record highs are expected to resume in 3Q25, reaching a full-year operating profit of KRW 34.8 trillion.
- HBM Valuation & Mix: HBM and eSSD revenue shares exceeded 40% and 70% of DRAM and NAND sales, respectively. 2025 HBM revenue is forecast at KRW 31.2 trillion (+140% YoY) and HBM operating profit at KRW 18.5 trillion (+150% YoY), fully supporting current market capitalization solely on HBM value.
- Business Stability & Financial Health: Most 2025 HBM supply contracts are finalized, with 2026 supply contracts expected to be completed in 1H25. Net debt decreased by KRW 15 trillion from its 2Q23 peak, positioning the company to reach a net cash position within 3Q25.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as an essential AI hardware partner warranting valuation parity with top-tier peers, driven by superior growth (OP growth) and profitability (ROE) via expanded HBM and eSSD mixes. The perspective emphasizes the standalone earnings power of the HBM division—projected to generate KRW 18.5 trillion in operating profit—and rapid balance sheet deleveraging heading into net cash territory over temporary 1Q seasonal softness.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 1Q blended DRAM ASP manages a +1.6% gain, whether 2026 HBM customer commitments are finalized within 1H25, and whether quarterly operating profit hits record levels alongside a transition to net cash by 3Q25. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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