Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Surim Lee, Jinyoung Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Following strong 4Q24 results, 2025 HBM revenue is projected to surge over 100% YoY to drive 45% of DRAM revenue and 48% of operating profit, establishing structural earnings stability across market cycles.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (01/22) KRW 225,500, Target Price KRW 290,000 (Maintained), Upside Potential 28.6%, Investment Rating BUY (Maintained)
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 164.165 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728,002 thousand, 52-Week High/Low KRW 248,500 / KRW 131,700, Foreign Ownership 56.0%
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024P Revenue: KRW 66.193 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 23.468 trillion, Pre-tax Profit: KRW 21.640 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 17.008 trillion (EPS: KRW 23,362, Turned to Profit)
- 2025F Revenue: KRW 85.184 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 33.818 trillion (~KRW 34.0 trillion in text forecast), Pre-tax Profit: KRW 31.657 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 24.293 trillion (EPS: KRW 33,369, YoY Growth: 42.8%)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2024P: P/E 9.7x, P/B 2.4x, EV/EBITDA 4.4x, ROE 27.6%, Operating Margin 35.5%
- 2025F: P/E 6.8x, P/B 1.8x, EV/EBITDA 3.0x, ROE 29.9%, Operating Margin 39.7%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q24 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 19.8 trillion (+12% QoQ, +75% YoY) and operating profit KRW 8.1 trillion (+15% QoQ, +2,236% YoY). DRAM posted bit growth of +5% and ASP +10%, while NAND recorded bit growth of -3% and ASP -5%. Full-year 2024 HBM revenue achieved +450% YoY growth, outperforming earlier guidance (+300% YoY).
- HBM Financial Contribution & Roadmap: 2025 HBM revenue is forecast to grow over 100% YoY, generating 45% (KRW 28.6 trillion) of DRAM revenue and 48% (KRW 15.9 trillion) of DRAM operating profit. Roadmap includes 1H25 mass production of 48GB HBM3e 16-high, 2H25 mass production of HBM4 12-high, and 2H26 mass production of HBM4 16-high.
- Earnings Stability & Structural Shift: Secured by pre-committed order contracts, HBM significantly elevates earnings visibility against cyclical downturns. Expanding HBM revenue is set to offset NAND weakness, with most 2026 HBM supply agreements scheduled to be finalized in 1H25.
- Commodity Recovery Outlook: Commodity DRAM is also expected to rebound in 2H25, supported by expanding AI server investments and corporate server replacement cycles.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as a company undergoing a structural shift toward long-term earnings stability beyond standard memory cycle volatility, powered by decisive HBM leadership. The perspective places greater significance on high earnings visibility—with HBM projected to account for 48% (KRW 15.9 trillion) of 2025 DRAM operating profit—and enhanced pricing power in custom HBM rather than near-term NAND softness.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 2025 HBM revenue grows over 100% YoY to reach the KRW 34 trillion company-wide operating profit forecast, the smooth execution of 48GB HBM3e 16-high (1H25) and HBM4 12-high (2H25) mass production, and the finalization of 2026 HBM customer commitments in 1H25. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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