Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Kwangjin Kim
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Full-year 2025 operating profit forecasts are revised upward to KRW 30.8 trillion, driven by a faster-than-expected recovery in legacy DRAM demand backed by low-cost AI model development and China’s trade-in subsidies.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (3/11) KRW 187,800, Target Price KRW 290,000 (Raised from KRW 280,000), Upside Potential 54.4%, Investment Rating Buy (Maintained)
- Target Price Methodology: Target price raised reflecting upward revisions to 2025E BPS, while maintaining the Target P/B multiple at 2.2x.
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 136.719 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728,002 thousand, 52-Week High/Low KRW 241,000 / KRW 152,800, Foreign Ownership 55.3%
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2025E Revenue: KRW 81.247 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 30.849 trillion (Upgraded from KRW 26.5 trillion), Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 23.478 trillion (EPS: KRW 34,119)
- 2026E Revenue: KRW 94.040 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 34.266 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 26.327 trillion (EPS: KRW 38,258)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2025E: P/E 5.5x, P/B 1.4x, EV/EBITDA 3.2x, ROE 27.7%, Dividend Yield 0.6%
- 2026E: P/E 4.9x, P/B 1.1x, EV/EBITDA 2.6x, ROE 24.3%, Dividend Yield 0.6%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q25 Preview: Revenue is projected at KRW 16.5 trillion (-17% QoQ) and operating profit at KRW 6.2 trillion (-23% QoQ), meeting market expectations. Bit growth contraction is forecast at -12% for DRAM and -18% for NAND, aligning broadly with guidance.
- ASP Defensiveness & Mix Effect: While blended ASP is expected to decline (-5% for DRAM, -10% for NAND) due to commodity memory softness, high exposure to HBM and enterprise SSDs (eSSD) provides defensive margin resilience over peers.
- Legacy DRAM Demand Rebound: Surging demand for low-cost AI model development following DeepSeek, combined with China’s trade-in subsidies, is driving a swift turnaround in legacy DRAM. Industry legacy DRAM inventories stand within 10 weeks, likely moderating price drops significantly starting in 2Q25.
- Medium-to-Long-Term HBM Visibility: The company maintains undisputed leadership as the preferred supplier for major GPU and ASIC customers. Negotiations for 2026 HBM supply are nearing completion, with 2026 HBM shipments projected to grow over 50% YoY from 2025 levels (~13 billion Gb).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as a premier memory leader solidifying its unassailable HBM dominance while simultaneously capturing early upside from a legacy DRAM demand rebound fueled by post-DeepSeek low-cost AI development and Chinese trade-in subsidies. The perspective places greater significance on the 2Q stabilization of legacy DRAM pricing and visibility into 2026 HBM customer commitments over near-term 1Q seasonal softness.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 1Q operating profit meets the KRW 6.2 trillion projection, whether legacy DRAM price erosion stabilizes starting in 2Q, and whether major client negotiations for 2026 HBM volumes are finalized with projected >50% shipment growth. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
