Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Dong-hee Han
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Driven by established HBM competitiveness amid ongoing AI infrastructure investments and expanding leading-edge market dominance via M15X, earnings are projected to pass their trough in 2Q and sustain structural outperformance.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (04/03/25) KRW 194,600, Target Price KRW 300,000 (Maintained), Upside Potential 54.2%, Rating BUY (Maintain)
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 141.669 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728.000 million shares, 52-Week High/Low KRW 241,000 / KRW 152,800
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2025E Revenue: KRW 90.549 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 37.185 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 28.217 trillion (EPS: KRW 38,760)
- 2026E Revenue: KRW 105.942 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 46.615 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 35.759 trillion (EPS: KRW 49,120)
- 2027E Revenue: KRW 103.824 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 42.568 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 32.577 trillion (EPS: KRW 44,748)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2025E: P/E 5.0x, P/B 1.4x, EV/EBITDA 2.8x, ROE 32.3%
- 2026E: P/E 4.0x, P/B 1.0x, EV/EBITDA 1.9x, ROE 30.4%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q25 Preview: Operating profit is projected at KRW 6.7 trillion (-17% QoQ). Despite off-peak seasonality, robust AI infrastructure demand, Chinese trade-in subsidies, and pull-in demand lifted legacy orders above expectations. Bit growth and ASP are forecast at -10% / +1% for DRAM and -19% / -17% for NAND.
- Divisional Profitability: Despite a temporary pause in HBM shipments (-2%), DRAM operating profit is expected to reach KRW 7.1 trillion (-6% QoQ), demonstrating macro resilience. NAND is expected to outperform peers with an operating loss of only KRW 0.2 trillion, supported by Solidigm’s QLC SSD profitability.
- 2Q25 Outlook & Bottoming Out: Operating profit is projected at KRW 8.2 trillion (+22% QoQ), signaling an entry into an earnings recovery phase. Rebounding HBM shipments, rising HBM3e 12-high product mix, DDR5 price increases, and inventory drawdowns are set to drive momentum.
- Mid-to-Long-Term Differentiation: While macro tariff risks exist, structural AI memory demand and HBM leadership remain intact. Expanding capacity via the M15X fab will further reinforce market dominance amid an industry-wide supply tightness in leading-edge nodes.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as the top sector pick positioned to pass its earnings trough in 2Q and sustain structural outperformance, anchored by unmatched HBM leadership and high-value product mix resilience despite macro tariff noise and off-peak seasonality. The perspective places greater significance on the upcoming 2Q ramp-up of HBM3e 12-high and mid-to-long term leading-edge capacity expansion via M15X rather than temporary cyclical slowdowns.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 1Q DRAM operating profit reaches KRW 7.1 trillion and 2Q operating profit achieves KRW 8.2 trillion, the magnitude of the 2Q HBM shipment rebound driven by HBM3e 12-high adoption, and the durability of DDR5 price increases. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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