Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim, Jaeho Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 244,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Reflecting downward revisions to 2025 operating profit forecasts, potential competitor entry in 2H, and external uncertainties including tariffs, the target multiple is lowered, calling for a flexible approach within an undervalued territory.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (4/24/25) KRW 178,300, Target Price KRW 244,000 (Lowered by 11.9%), Upside Potential 36.8%
- Target Price Methodology: Lowered 2025 operating profit forecast by 4.6% to KRW 36.4 trillion (from KRW 38.4 trillion) and reduced the target P/B multiple by 15% from 2.0x to 1.7x due to macro factors and potential competitor entry.
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2025F Revenue: KRW 85.320 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 36.398 trillion (Consensus: KRW 34.756 trillion), Net Income: KRW 29.923 trillion (EPS: KRW 41,103, EPS Growth: 51.2%)
- 2026F Revenue: KRW 106.541 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 44.425 trillion, Net Income: KRW 37.231 trillion (EPS: KRW 51,141)
- 2027F Revenue: KRW 122.711 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 54.311 trillion, Net Income: KRW 46.249 trillion (EPS: KRW 63,528)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2025F: P/E 4.3x (Market P/E: 9.3x), P/B 1.2x, ROE 34.0%, Operating Margin 42.7%, Dividend Yield 1.2%
- Market Capitalization: KRW 129.803 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding: 728 million, Foreign Ownership: 53.2%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q25 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 17.6 trillion (-10.8% QoQ) and operating profit KRW 7.4 trillion (-7.9% QoQ), significantly beating market expectations (KRW 6.7 trillion) and estimates (KRW 6.4 trillion). DRAM shipment decline was milder (-HS%) than guidance (-LT%), and strong demand for HBM3E 12-high and high-value DDR5 delivered high profitability.
- HBM Product Mix & Roadmap: 1Q HBM revenue approached nearly 50% of total DRAM revenue, with 3E 12-high expanding into the 20% range. The portion of 12-high is expected to surpass 8-high within 1H. Starting in 2H, full-scale mass production of HBM4 (with bandwidth expanded by >40%) will begin. HBM quarterly ASP increases are projected to continue throughout the year.
- 2Q25 Preview: Revenue is projected at KRW 20.7 trillion (+17.6% QoQ) and operating profit at a record KRW 8.6 trillion (+16.2% QoQ). DRAM ASP is expected to rebound +5.4% driven by expanded 3E 12-high mix and tariff-driven inventory restocking (ASP expected to stabilize downward starting 4Q25).
- Market Opportunities & Risks: The stock trades at the lowest valuation among global peers; however, Big Tech CapEx volatility, tariff-related purchasing power reduction, and competitor HBM entry in the second half warrant a flexible strategy.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as an undervalued leader whose near-term target multiple is constrained by annual earnings estimate revisions, Big Tech CapEx volatility, macro tariff uncertainties, and impending competitor entry in the second half. The perspective places greater significance on the multiple contraction and the necessity of flexible positioning rather than solely focusing on robust quarterly operating performance.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 2Q DRAM ASP rebounds (+5.4%) to achieve the projected KRW 8.6 trillion operating profit, whether mass production of HBM4 with >40% wider bandwidth proceeds smoothly in 2H, and how actual Big Tech CapEx trends and competitor HBM entries materialize. These variables can be tracked through upcoming earnings releases, official IR materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
