Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Myeongsub Song
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintain)
Target Price : 530,000 KRW (Raised)
Core Momentum : Robust server and enterprise SSD demand is expected to sustain the DRAM and NAND upcycle through at least 1H26, while increasing HBM4 competition and potential set-demand pressure remain key variables for earnings durability.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price: 530,000 KRW (Based on a historical peak P/B multiple of 2.5x applied to the projected FY26 BPS of 208,625 KRW, Raised)
- Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain)
- 2025F / 2026F Financial Outlook: 2025 Revenue 91.03 trillion KRW, Operating Profit 41.04 trillion KRW, Net Income 32.08 trillion KRW / 2026 Revenue 113.27 trillion KRW, Operating Profit 57.18 trillion KRW, Net Income 44.79 trillion KRW
- EPS: 45,000 KRW (2025F), 61,522 KRW (2026F)
- Valuation Multiples: PER 10.1x, PBR 3.1x, EV/EBITDA 5.8x, ROE 36.2% (2025F) / PER 7.4x, PBR 2.2x, EV/EBITDA 3.8x, ROE 34.6% (2026F)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q25 Review & Preview: 3Q25 revenue and operating profit are estimated at 24.6 trillion KRW and 11.4 trillion KRW, respectively. DRAM shipments exceeded guidance driven by server expansion and US competitor bottlenecks, while the NAND division successfully returned to a surplus. 4Q25 revenue and operating profit are expected to improve further to 26.6 trillion KRW and 13.3 trillion KRW.
- Industry & Demand Projections: Even under a mild economic deceleration scenario, stable demand growth across CY26 PCs, smartphones, and servers suggests that the upcycle for both legacy DRAM and NAND will likely remain favorable through at least 1H26.
- Competitor Risk: Early entry by competitors into the HBM4 market could lower SK hynix’s HBM market share from 54% (2025) to 43%, leading to relatively larger profit upside for rivals.
- Tariff & Set-Demand Risk: Potential final U.S. tariffs on semiconductors pose potential risks. If strong demand drives aggressive price hikes, high DRAM cost burdens (BOM cost near 7%) could force PC and smartphone makers to hike set prices or cut purchasing volumes.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix as maintaining solid earnings momentum across both 3Q and 4Q, supported by robust server and eSSD demand, with favorable industry conditions expected to persist through at least the first half of 2026.
To verify this investment thesis, one should track quarterly consensus fulfillment, potential shifts in HBM market share tied to competitor execution, and macro risks involving semiconductor tariffs and set-demand contraction. These indicators can be monitored through upcoming quarterly reports and regulatory filings via DART.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
