Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Myeongsub Song
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintain)
Target Price : 680,000 KRW (Raised)
Core Momentum : DRAM and NAND demand growth is expected to outpace industry supply expansion in 2026, while the shift toward AI inference broadens memory demand from HBM into server DDR5 and enterprise SSDs, supporting continued earnings growth.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price: 680,000 KRW (Based on a target P/B of 3.0x applied to the 2026F BPS of 225,757 KRW, Raised)
- Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain)
- 2025F / 2026F Financial Outlook: 2025 Revenue 91.02 trillion KRW, Operating Profit 41.05 trillion KRW, Net Income 37.04 trillion KRW / 2026 Revenue 123.34 trillion KRW, Operating Profit 66.55 trillion KRW, Net Income 52.60 trillion KRW
- EPS: 51,397 KRW (2025F), 72,256 KRW (2026F)
- Valuation Multiples: PER 10.1x, PBR 3.4x, EV/EBITDA 6.6x, ROE 40.4% (2025F) / PER 7.2x, PBR 2.3x, EV/EBITDA 3.8x, ROE 38.1% (2026F)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q25 Review: Operating profit came in at 11.4 trillion KRW, aligning with prior estimates. 4Q25 revenue and operating profit are projected to reach 26.8 trillion KRW and 13.5 trillion KRW, up 10% and 19% QoQ, respectively.
- 4Q25 Preview & Outlook: 4Q25 DRAM and NAND Blended ASPs are projected to rise by 6% and 8% QoQ. 4Q25 estimated operating profit stands at 12.5 trillion KRW for DRAM (OPM +61%) and 1.0 trillion KRW for NAND (OPM +16%).
- CY26 Outlook & Guidance: CY26 DRAM and NAND demand growth rates are projected to exceed 20% and the upper-teens, respectively, while industry supply growth will likely fall short. As AI shifts toward inference, demand is expected to surge not only for HBM but also for server DDR5 and eSSDs.
- Key Risk Factors: 1) Potential individual tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration on semiconductors, PCs, and smartphones, which could raise IT set prices and depress demand. 2) Weakening Chinese economic leading indicators and IT demand slowdown trends impacting domestic appliance demand in China. 3) High DRAM price levels squeezing PC and smartphone maker margins, potentially leading to set price hikes or curtailed DRAM purchasing volumes.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst notes that SK hynix exhibits strong confidence in the CY26 industry environment. Despite identified risks including potential tariffs, Chinese economic deceleration, and elevated DRAM pricing pressures on set demand, solid fundamentals remain intact to sustain semiconductor upcycle momentum through at least 1H26.
To verify this investment thesis, one should track whether 4Q25 financial targets (revenue of 26.8 trillion KRW, operating profit of 13.5 trillion KRW) are achieved, if CY26 shipment and demand growth surpass supply expansion, and how potential risks regarding tariffs, China’s economic environment, and set-demand contraction impact operational performance. These indicators can be monitored through upcoming quarterly reports and regulatory filings via DART.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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